{"entities":{"Q1727897":{"pageid":1738638,"ns":120,"title":"Item:Q1727897","lastrevid":68866791,"modified":"2026-04-13T02:44:33Z","type":"item","id":"Q1727897","labels":{"en":{"language":"en","value":"Hierarchical model for forecasting the outcomes of binary referenda"}},"descriptions":{"en":{"language":"en","value":"scientific article; zbMATH DE number 7027247"}},"aliases":{},"claims":{"P31":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P31","hash":"fd5912e4dab4b881a8eb0eb27e7893fef55176ad","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":56887,"id":"Q56887"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q1727897$799DFC64-D9B0-4601-9EEB-7C1B0B04FD7D","rank":"normal"}],"P159":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P159","hash":"cca722357ed4f2d3e80e899c850288b562ead0d6","datavalue":{"value":{"text":"Hierarchical model for forecasting the outcomes of binary referenda","language":"en"},"type":"monolingualtext"},"datatype":"monolingualtext"},"type":"statement","id":"Q1727897$5ECDB4F8-AC98-4A57-9A5E-5640B48B6146","rank":"normal"}],"P16":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P16","hash":"c8c7eb147f3a9dab2f1afc0deda5bfe1bac1fda3","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":1727896,"id":"Q1727896"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q1727897$4601B02C-5C19-4D4D-BC09-3C7864ED9F69","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P16","hash":"d4b5de1eca8dbc738204bd947bf153b3f3b98d2c","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":986626,"id":"Q986626"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q1727897$8F5B3769-372A-4D60-8398-882349600FC2","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P16","hash":"fb192e04009e061571d1b6ded3172399f51244fa","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":245392,"id":"Q245392"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q1727897$3065609A-D0AE-4223-A4BA-7AB3760CA955","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P16","hash":"d09084e7caa4bb3929e467d39aaa417d359bc9cb","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":998837,"id":"Q998837"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q1727897$0BDA8281-AA0E-4242-82E0-CA6DE82489CE","rank":"normal"}],"P200":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P200","hash":"a3fc06e9fbf322a9f6c41af825f926da65974fb3","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":196900,"id":"Q196900"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q1727897$CA05B2CB-89EF-4733-994E-18C2BBCCCED9","rank":"normal"}],"P28":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P28","hash":"3c9332c1f846d5049945df8d203c7d1a4a521fd3","datavalue":{"value":{"time":"+2019-02-21T00:00:00Z","timezone":0,"before":0,"after":0,"precision":11,"calendarmodel":"http://www.wikidata.org/entity/Q1985727"},"type":"time"},"datatype":"time"},"type":"statement","id":"Q1727897$968FDE53-97C7-458A-9CC9-A4D063091570","rank":"normal"}],"P226":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P226","hash":"c2ef3c37a0453694c8108248b63c06b23b44dda9","datavalue":{"value":"62-08","type":"string"},"datatype":"external-id"},"type":"statement","id":"Q1727897$BFC45628-DC6C-4FE3-967E-5B2599192F67","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P226","hash":"2474c99ceba943e04dda4ddfffedfe45f5fdfd62","datavalue":{"value":"62F15","type":"string"},"datatype":"external-id"},"type":"statement","id":"Q1727897$36FAD7AD-C839-4CF1-A848-3FAC07A48860","rank":"normal"}],"P1451":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1451","hash":"a020b929b19b3924110372a845e080266ff31846","datavalue":{"value":"7027247","type":"string"},"datatype":"external-id"},"type":"statement","id":"Q1727897$0DAC19B0-8827-4B27-AC9F-45F49AACE182","rank":"normal"}],"P1450":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1450","hash":"479509fed2770452094bda3f59189f7593e80a5a","datavalue":{"value":"opinion polls","type":"string"},"datatype":"string"},"type":"statement","id":"Q1727897$ACB8F67C-FA5C-4B72-A38D-53EEE849CC30","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1450","hash":"c7b36389dd98a9f72f1711dbde0af5f0fc56be52","datavalue":{"value":"forecasting","type":"string"},"datatype":"string"},"type":"statement","id":"Q1727897$0A9BCFE5-85AD-4DB5-8120-9D70EF398D55","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1450","hash":"8f091f8059c950552814fbf1d9159bf350956a70","datavalue":{"value":"Bayesian inference","type":"string"},"datatype":"string"},"type":"statement","id":"Q1727897$73600672-0008-44D1-9FDB-EE79604C7541","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1450","hash":"eb775455cd6e6c90906695deeebf467b934e5f00","datavalue":{"value":"statistical modelling","type":"string"},"datatype":"string"},"type":"statement","id":"Q1727897$CE1CAA79-764A-460E-AEAA-7CB3B0705849","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1450","hash":"a1c13836b7bf1a7943cebefac7a23fe72f4bf634","datavalue":{"value":"United Kingdom","type":"string"},"datatype":"string"},"type":"statement","id":"Q1727897$6DFD43E5-8837-477A-95E4-394412FC32E8","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1450","hash":"4e673673818a7973858613525030cda56eb09de2","datavalue":{"value":"Brexit","type":"string"},"datatype":"string"},"type":"statement","id":"Q1727897$8082333A-C237-4882-9CAB-481F1F7757BF","rank":"normal"}],"P1463":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1463","hash":"5606f0a713db398f21f6f5776d9db22413bd2f5f","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":20055,"id":"Q20055"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q1727897$EFC3335B-3B4F-48E7-A99C-5E061C9C74F4","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1463","hash":"81e8a0579ccfb78c150da28205aac244456598e7","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":19901,"id":"Q19901"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q1727897$287C7826-1C91-4B70-BD09-86AEF405A2B4","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1463","hash":"b2f45492d0a9ee38c7f6f7ea29a7881599069d9b","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":13519,"id":"Q13519"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q1727897$4B8980E7-C530-4EED-B389-EDF7AEA1E834","rank":"normal"}],"P1460":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1460","hash":"57f7fea50d2ce1b39b695c4a1313582eed405e38","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":5976449,"id":"Q5976449"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q1727897$BE3401BC-2442-4E02-85EA-00B1EE7A2B1F","rank":"normal"}],"P205":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P205","hash":"dfcbd322c0cfa4857de331f7fc550af1b1eb76f0","datavalue":{"value":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csda.2018.09.007","type":"string"},"datatype":"url"},"type":"statement","id":"Q1727897$33DB41AF-0DF3-4EC3-95A1-BA7BC892CB8C","rank":"normal"}],"P388":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P388","hash":"30a9440986e57d83e7eed63da69e0b4778b81da0","datavalue":{"value":"W2891940404","type":"string"},"datatype":"external-id"},"type":"statement","id":"Q1727897$6292A696-E4F0-49AC-9D47-530574D91E7C","rank":"normal"}],"P223":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P223","hash":"11be1f46567c074141693d39aa10b8992b114d63","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":5965277,"id":"Q5965277"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q1727897$B259C9CB-9A04-4BDF-9F0D-EA8A89BA40B1","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P223","hash":"8b9ec20269ebd67d02fa9ef503928c954cd0ae87","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":1431179,"id":"Q1431179"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q1727897$958CC50F-C6A0-4D6F-9E06-2224F67D5DC4","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P223","hash":"f8a286bd1c27f3cc4d7da4ccb599c0ef4e9ceadf","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":5850805,"id":"Q5850805"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q1727897$06FB0F9B-01A7-4B66-94FE-B70CE2E00211","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P223","hash":"44abba063ed595c534b7486d8746f00947de3e25","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":4916933,"id":"Q4916933"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q1727897$D1EC133F-5351-436B-B9B4-C199DCAB45CE","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P223","hash":"0abc0038e0827bd9c270fd9eb5c6cc0173d4466a","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":4672150,"id":"Q4672150"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q1727897$A6CF76A0-1672-401F-B28B-06731DEA9582","rank":"normal"}],"P12":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P12","hash":"21921eb79e14fd1032fc4cb70aedbd82d621ba83","datavalue":{"value":"Q129183351","type":"string"},"datatype":"external-id"},"type":"statement","id":"Q1727897$22FF0B64-1BE7-4190-B7F4-BDDA249B2B2F","rank":"normal"}],"P27":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P27","hash":"ee01dec3ec17a5a617eff329292afcf78621679a","datavalue":{"value":"10.1016/J.CSDA.2018.09.007","type":"string"},"datatype":"external-id"},"type":"statement","id":"Q1727897$70EEBCCD-5B29-434C-94AD-C0180FFD1818","rank":"normal"}],"P1643":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1643","hash":"4e9a5043b734eb3392e97d64371ad0d34239ce5f","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":5385199,"id":"Q5385199"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","qualifiers":{"P1659":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1659","hash":"1747bcfe8a2ac1bacf24f24d14e6be111c060f6e","datavalue":{"value":{"amount":"+0.8254309","unit":"1"},"type":"quantity"},"datatype":"quantity"}],"P1660":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1660","hash":"ac3c626774dcd0d16f89557f66586245841a01db","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":6767936,"id":"Q6767936"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"}]},"qualifiers-order":["P1659","P1660"],"id":"Q1727897$20FFAE9F-EEC1-46FE-89D9-1843C460AB77","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1643","hash":"b7381e1ae7e5f6c4c043ab5e5bb5fbab30bac814","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":3071170,"id":"Q3071170"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","qualifiers":{"P1659":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1659","hash":"b937e9b5c8b54d57eb1f03a791d717cf308f0c31","datavalue":{"value":{"amount":"+0.8118693","unit":"1"},"type":"quantity"},"datatype":"quantity"}],"P1660":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1660","hash":"ac3c626774dcd0d16f89557f66586245841a01db","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":6767936,"id":"Q6767936"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"}]},"qualifiers-order":["P1659","P1660"],"id":"Q1727897$D58FECC2-84D2-4593-A000-1A2A1B5D2A10","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1643","hash":"30dd812856f1ef7f014180249bbf3ba18a715e07","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":3635367,"id":"Q3635367"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","qualifiers":{"P1659":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1659","hash":"fabac11f33b41f00ede8cce0e20889dc2b1091b5","datavalue":{"value":{"amount":"+0.7983325","unit":"1"},"type":"quantity"},"datatype":"quantity"}],"P1660":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1660","hash":"ac3c626774dcd0d16f89557f66586245841a01db","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":6767936,"id":"Q6767936"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"}]},"qualifiers-order":["P1659","P1660"],"id":"Q1727897$00FA5A38-F6C1-43EB-BC87-9A582A486589","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1643","hash":"66d363d0439c5c36d39846c7c60ba6d0403df02c","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":5140611,"id":"Q5140611"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","qualifiers":{"P1659":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1659","hash":"aebd03c1df12226a7a31407b3f29db5a942185b9","datavalue":{"value":{"amount":"+0.79714906","unit":"1"},"type":"quantity"},"datatype":"quantity"}],"P1660":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1660","hash":"ac3c626774dcd0d16f89557f66586245841a01db","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":6767936,"id":"Q6767936"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"}]},"qualifiers-order":["P1659","P1660"],"id":"Q1727897$1DC500A6-273C-4255-B995-271E80C48469","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1643","hash":"779d464cbf4ffff4a2d5351110891f7e5289c157","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":4916933,"id":"Q4916933"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","qualifiers":{"P1659":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1659","hash":"859ac466c2880ac99d3b9fb6177e08584d75ed57","datavalue":{"value":{"amount":"+0.79570687","unit":"1"},"type":"quantity"},"datatype":"quantity"}],"P1660":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1660","hash":"ac3c626774dcd0d16f89557f66586245841a01db","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":6767936,"id":"Q6767936"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"}]},"qualifiers-order":["P1659","P1660"],"id":"Q1727897$784BBC93-909A-42D4-A607-05EA21462632","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1643","hash":"d3ae57485561621ab75d7524a0d892ddb6b63a40","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":1867823,"id":"Q1867823"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","qualifiers":{"P1659":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1659","hash":"355abd28d947d7fcbc3dc7a5d4a904fcadea89d0","datavalue":{"value":{"amount":"+0.7951033","unit":"1"},"type":"quantity"},"datatype":"quantity"}],"P1660":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1660","hash":"ac3c626774dcd0d16f89557f66586245841a01db","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":6767936,"id":"Q6767936"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"}]},"qualifiers-order":["P1659","P1660"],"id":"Q1727897$2BE099F7-114D-44E2-BD31-89BA8FE7A7C5","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1643","hash":"421f64191139cb3424b309cf0677585d46eaf2b1","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":2691668,"id":"Q2691668"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","qualifiers":{"P1659":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1659","hash":"7932b35a3e5d77aa77f0ce55446c19e0a0592628","datavalue":{"value":{"amount":"+0.7927088","unit":"1"},"type":"quantity"},"datatype":"quantity"}],"P1660":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1660","hash":"ac3c626774dcd0d16f89557f66586245841a01db","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":6767936,"id":"Q6767936"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"}]},"qualifiers-order":["P1659","P1660"],"id":"Q1727897$CED3B3A8-15B1-47F0-9206-3A8A8DB963C5","rank":"normal"}],"P163":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P163","hash":"45fcd4163b5f33e6e8c784f5522d7246c0a1a61e","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":57056,"id":"Q57056"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q1727897$6927697F-99DF-4DF1-B02B-F26C13295905","rank":"normal"}]},"sitelinks":{"mardi":{"site":"mardi","title":"Hierarchical model for forecasting the outcomes of binary referenda","badges":[],"url":"https://portal.mardi4nfdi.de/wiki/Hierarchical_model_for_forecasting_the_outcomes_of_binary_referenda"}}}}}