{"entities":{"Q1929678":{"pageid":1940420,"ns":120,"title":"Item:Q1929678","lastrevid":51627818,"modified":"2026-01-19T03:38:33Z","type":"item","id":"Q1929678","labels":{"en":{"language":"en","value":"Stochastic methodology for the study of an epidemic decay phase, based on a branching model"}},"descriptions":{"en":{"language":"en","value":"scientific article; zbMATH DE number 6123595"}},"aliases":{},"claims":{"P31":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P31","hash":"fd5912e4dab4b881a8eb0eb27e7893fef55176ad","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":56887,"id":"Q56887"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q1929678$7E7E53A6-5796-43D3-8261-15EE0586E031","rank":"normal"}],"P159":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P159","hash":"6ebd8d2694c018d430b5eec33da3fb023842220f","datavalue":{"value":{"text":"Stochastic methodology for the study of an epidemic decay phase, based on a branching model","language":"en"},"type":"monolingualtext"},"datatype":"monolingualtext"},"type":"statement","id":"Q1929678$0F12DEF3-7030-44A8-9EBB-07BA0794E7D9","rank":"normal"}],"P225":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P225","hash":"b2056c958869f2b1d56eded711a5f0b431310951","datavalue":{"value":"1254.92067","type":"string"},"datatype":"external-id"},"type":"statement","id":"Q1929678$97E91BB0-7B95-42EE-98A7-5E1956D16949","rank":"normal"}],"P27":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P27","hash":"918311fed3666037b9405ca3266828330b075435","datavalue":{"value":"10.1155/2012/598701","type":"string"},"datatype":"external-id"},"type":"statement","id":"Q1929678$6CAA0718-35E3-4CF3-AB3F-7494092A8B77","rank":"normal"}],"P16":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P16","hash":"c16d0b072fdd4533b5c48e292a8cf110c39c7e4a","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":470500,"id":"Q470500"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q1929678$4DF2C5A5-ADA8-4A9D-B5A8-691C2EAF85C2","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P16","hash":"f3ccf18e03fdf41969a06a4fd8c4754ed707a4e7","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":389893,"id":"Q389893"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q1929678$D56E3E36-1159-4910-AD36-27B4942775B2","rank":"normal"}],"P200":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P200","hash":"99db6d79d0a78969e4631ff58d3211b28610ca6e","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":274829,"id":"Q274829"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q1929678$474E19E7-532C-4E1A-A504-7290E05A2FAC","rank":"normal"}],"P28":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P28","hash":"4331d5b4abbb2f7bb88786d75d7faa748a867f4f","datavalue":{"value":{"time":"+2013-01-09T00:00:00Z","timezone":0,"before":0,"after":0,"precision":11,"calendarmodel":"http://www.wikidata.org/entity/Q1985727"},"type":"time"},"datatype":"time"},"type":"statement","id":"Q1929678$096AEF02-322C-4B75-A2C4-54EB124663CD","rank":"normal"}],"P1448":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1448","hash":"348a468fc3765c0484a3658be4360f216e782a9e","datavalue":{"value":"Summary: We present a stochastic methodology to study the decay phase of an epidemic. It is based on a general stochastic epidemic process with memory, suitable to model the spread in a large open population with births of any rare transmissible disease with a random incubation period and a Reed-Frost type infection. This model, which belongs to the class of multitype branching processes in discrete time, enables us to predict the incidences of cases and to derive the probability distributions of the extinction time and of the future epidemic size. We also study the epidemic evolution in the worst-case scenario of a very late extinction time, making use of the \\(Q\\)-process. We provide in addition an estimator of the key parameter of the epidemic model quantifying the infection and finally illustrate this methodology with the study of the Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy epidemic in Great Britain after the 1988 feed ban law.","type":"string"},"datatype":"string"},"type":"statement","id":"Q1929678$034EC652-20DF-44E3-B406-EE799F9DD327","rank":"normal"}],"P226":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P226","hash":"5ecf4422b4bdcb52d650b1f66059a372dffc2cb2","datavalue":{"value":"92C60","type":"string"},"datatype":"external-id"},"type":"statement","id":"Q1929678$CF6498A4-A4A1-436E-8404-589A44836DD6","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P226","hash":"c4936856078b107e459cb55c5a1f0bcabb75bf82","datavalue":{"value":"60J85","type":"string"},"datatype":"external-id"},"type":"statement","id":"Q1929678$D0B9AD20-66DF-4A66-B4E7-85EAB033593F","rank":"normal"}],"P1451":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1451","hash":"d00d543ade198bf64225b23f46b1a4cb831bdf17","datavalue":{"value":"6123595","type":"string"},"datatype":"external-id"},"type":"statement","id":"Q1929678$0A76ADC6-FBE5-47FD-A983-69A09E10CD51","rank":"normal"}],"P1460":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1460","hash":"57f7fea50d2ce1b39b695c4a1313582eed405e38","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":5976449,"id":"Q5976449"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q1929678$8162E0B2-B710-4B3B-ADFB-F5C8807574A3","rank":"normal"}],"P205":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P205","hash":"f030eedf56dd7f2686d0f3108340914765275a70","datavalue":{"value":"https://doi.org/10.1155/2012/598701","type":"string"},"datatype":"url"},"type":"statement","id":"Q1929678$9EADA96F-3374-4301-A746-F5534B39FDDE","rank":"normal"}],"P388":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P388","hash":"5eba91d289c1f33ed528510f481ebe542117f300","datavalue":{"value":"W2016754569","type":"string"},"datatype":"external-id"},"type":"statement","id":"Q1929678$4D6A4D39-E3D8-4EDD-B274-93958000D3C1","rank":"normal"}],"P12":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P12","hash":"7bc63de479f12ed2fe940a05f65e8ce7f059776b","datavalue":{"value":"Q58689569","type":"string"},"datatype":"external-id"},"type":"statement","id":"Q1929678$17513BB7-E91B-4EDC-9CD7-4E6B683150F1","rank":"normal"}],"P223":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P223","hash":"a6494fb00c053d73c23b24ee6dd51954ed0c9fd0","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":2373242,"id":"Q2373242"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q1929678$8A1BFC23-4A53-4716-9C8E-C7D6BC8497E9","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P223","hash":"ac306da40edc14c4eda528f3e6f160c90f41c958","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":1764637,"id":"Q1764637"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q1929678$28BF722B-C202-4503-9751-EA375F14DFD3","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P223","hash":"496666d987b90ae42cf842709fd83894f639f600","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":3670959,"id":"Q3670959"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q1929678$1329D63D-A31D-4179-B479-166E630A7503","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P223","hash":"fecc8efcf9cc8a8f5a31f9d1f7c7fc6d4bcb0eca","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":1346141,"id":"Q1346141"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q1929678$43059B20-973E-48EE-9893-59FD41EB6F95","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P223","hash":"6ae000096e5ef685fe9b59d423a301504ae15065","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":5674726,"id":"Q5674726"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q1929678$C7A59D90-040C-4555-AAA1-319794C2D205","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P223","hash":"f0ce24df1517ba92f72fcd71e2bd0f148f2d4a8f","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":5297046,"id":"Q5297046"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q1929678$7AD1E9D8-7684-48A3-BDE3-CC4AA61BEF35","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P223","hash":"b7d646c8a6623696d14b1c8f34cf1260423b9f96","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":2533114,"id":"Q2533114"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q1929678$B488B663-44AA-48FA-920E-1E540671E73A","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P223","hash":"7e6b7fa56ec2f6789223df45d1dd35286fc3b6af","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":5453702,"id":"Q5453702"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q1929678$950FA549-5294-428B-9C3B-AF021F5FDEAC","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P223","hash":"1b1ba805ae101840d41b7e791d2366d94051f254","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":5345320,"id":"Q5345320"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q1929678$090E21E6-09B4-4C58-B471-11552C8EB9EF","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P223","hash":"0f2fa7ea09b2cbc2b7ade169697777bf2bb5737d","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":5802538,"id":"Q5802538"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q1929678$56404F41-5F0E-48DE-B92D-8A754495DE04","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P223","hash":"dbd79d431519445cd4201ef896e35fcbd46de2cd","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":3823613,"id":"Q3823613"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q1929678$D6DF9CF0-FAB3-4DD0-930D-D66618DE32B0","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P223","hash":"1d68cb73fe510d8922d558b43ea72f484d865f9b","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":5904131,"id":"Q5904131"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q1929678$65E652EF-E4D3-4089-BDF4-88C15417D341","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P223","hash":"ef9514524ab62b7cb7e189a8514ccbdca8b01472","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":4157756,"id":"Q4157756"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q1929678$D54ACDA4-F442-4A35-BFD9-31267AEA95F6","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P223","hash":"97ea715fd540d17414526df350c95c30bae1a7b9","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":3292891,"id":"Q3292891"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q1929678$33CF4FD5-183D-460D-8C16-F6080D4C5B6F","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P223","hash":"fb5328531daf2cd8cf95d6910348b34e03956dbc","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":847648,"id":"Q847648"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q1929678$217464FB-FFAE-46DC-B5BF-CA7A7F2210A7","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P223","hash":"e4f78a38926a9bd342fbfb8ca429cde1cd9d2928","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":3870062,"id":"Q3870062"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q1929678$6A32C8F9-5688-450F-9E94-50CD199E08A4","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P223","hash":"4b69481d5b271c882855223f78a6084780409dbb","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":4264747,"id":"Q4264747"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q1929678$6CE596FC-3352-4392-BEF4-DD346CE7E6FC","rank":"normal"}],"P1643":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1643","hash":"2abe85e91bc2f00245c4d6ac0a99b5ea9c019d5f","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":2959451,"id":"Q2959451"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","qualifiers":{"P1659":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1659","hash":"9b15c41ac03b6721ee00954fe1783c247c3cff18","datavalue":{"value":{"amount":"+0.838586151599884","unit":"1"},"type":"quantity"},"datatype":"quantity"}],"P1660":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1660","hash":"a327a09ea0305e98d5cf33bd4036320e19f2aed0","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":6821328,"id":"Q6821328"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"}]},"qualifiers-order":["P1659","P1660"],"id":"Q1929678$CF753EFF-9666-443B-BF81-09E3B45A4E35","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1643","hash":"005369b25fde18643fad4ed6f9aadd6feed65724","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":470501,"id":"Q470501"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","qualifiers":{"P1659":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1659","hash":"08eb45315a31b114a03ce9be7334ea01d563577b","datavalue":{"value":{"amount":"+0.7344340085983276","unit":"1"},"type":"quantity"},"datatype":"quantity"}],"P1660":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1660","hash":"a327a09ea0305e98d5cf33bd4036320e19f2aed0","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":6821328,"id":"Q6821328"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"}]},"qualifiers-order":["P1659","P1660"],"id":"Q1929678$BD72FCAD-068F-4B66-AC5D-77AC634463D6","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1643","hash":"b353db14aac478181d0904e20385f8e19822f4d2","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":5431164,"id":"Q5431164"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","qualifiers":{"P1659":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1659","hash":"db8cbdb379589a5fed1a73d73599c83629adb0d2","datavalue":{"value":{"amount":"+0.7300089597702026","unit":"1"},"type":"quantity"},"datatype":"quantity"}],"P1660":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1660","hash":"a327a09ea0305e98d5cf33bd4036320e19f2aed0","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":6821328,"id":"Q6821328"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"}]},"qualifiers-order":["P1659","P1660"],"id":"Q1929678$DA22905F-6312-4643-BE34-D2BA063B880A","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1643","hash":"741e5767a4eadb83ee3b089af71ada77c6fdfb5f","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":3078923,"id":"Q3078923"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","qualifiers":{"P1659":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1659","hash":"6cb5f5dc5d18d8bf19906f22c8cd9dd9677fb94e","datavalue":{"value":{"amount":"+0.7255855798721313","unit":"1"},"type":"quantity"},"datatype":"quantity"}],"P1660":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1660","hash":"a327a09ea0305e98d5cf33bd4036320e19f2aed0","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":6821328,"id":"Q6821328"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"}]},"qualifiers-order":["P1659","P1660"],"id":"Q1929678$10729BB8-2A48-4F0C-8061-8979292B8128","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1643","hash":"2f8d2b2bd8ad2046d97ae7353303929af97aac30","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":3625208,"id":"Q3625208"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","qualifiers":{"P1659":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1659","hash":"ee654429b93a73539adb4454642fb50dd19c907e","datavalue":{"value":{"amount":"+0.7217584252357483","unit":"1"},"type":"quantity"},"datatype":"quantity"}],"P1660":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1660","hash":"a327a09ea0305e98d5cf33bd4036320e19f2aed0","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":6821328,"id":"Q6821328"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"}]},"qualifiers-order":["P1659","P1660"],"id":"Q1929678$AFD64A2F-DE97-4637-BA39-F79499790D55","rank":"normal"}]},"sitelinks":{"mardi":{"site":"mardi","title":"Publication:1929678","badges":[]}}}}}