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Die Wahr\\-scheinlichkeit \\(p_\\nu\\), eine schwarze Kugel aus der \\(\\nu\\)-ten Urne zu ziehen, ist unbekannt; gegeben ist die von \\(\\nu\\) unabh\u00e4ngige a priori-Wahrscheinlichkeit \\(F (x)\\) daf\u00fcr, da\u00df \\(p_\\nu\\leqq x\\) ist. Aus jeder Urne wird eine Kugel gezogen, wobei \\(m\\) schwarze und \\(n - m\\) wei\u00dfe Ku\\-geln erscheinen. Man setzt  \\[  \\frac{p_1+p_2+\\cdots+p_n}n=p  \\]  und fragt nach der a posteriori-Wahrscheinlichkeit \\(P_n(x)\\) daf\u00fcr, da\u00df \\(p\\leqq x\\) ist. Es ergibt sich:  Wenn die ersten drei Momente der a priori-Verteilungsfunktion \\(F (x)\\)  \\[  b_\\nu ={\\int\\limits_{0}^{1}}x^\\nu dF(x)\\qquad (\\nu = 1,2,3)  \\]  existieren, und wenn die Streuung \\(b_2-b_1^2\\) von Null verschieden ist, dann gilt unter der Bedingung \\(\\lim\\limits_{n\\to\\infty}\\dfrac mn=\\alpha\\)  \\[  \\lim_{n\\to\\infty}\\left[P_n(x)-\\frac1{\\sqrt\\pi}{\\int\\limits_{-\\infty}^{u}} e^{-u^2}du\\right]=0,\\quad u = H_n(x -A_n)  \\]  mit  \\[  A_n=\\alpha\\frac{b_2}{b_1}+(1-\\alpha)\\frac{b_1-b_2}{1-b_1}  \\]  und  \\[  \\frac1{2H{}_n^2}=\\frac1n\\bigg[\\alpha\\frac{b_1b_3-b_2^2}{b_1^2}+ (1-\\alpha)\\frac{(b_2-b_3)(1-b_1)-(b_1-b_2)^2}{(1-b_1)^2}\\bigg].  \\]  Der Einflu\u00df der a priori-Wahrseheinlichkeit verschwindet also bei diesem abge\u00e4nderten \\textit{Bayes}schen Problem \\textit{nicht}. F\u00fcr den Sonderfall \\(F'(x)= Cx^k(1 - x)^l\\) werden die For\\-meln weiter diskutiert.","type":"string"},"datatype":"string"},"type":"statement","id":"Q2599396$9EBFD54A-93F9-45BB-ABCA-359BD7249DC8","rank":"normal"}],"P1451":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1451","hash":"39921214f95f9619de20a47c1922293df514cbb5","datavalue":{"value":"2518584","type":"string"},"datatype":"external-id"},"type":"statement","id":"Q2599396$889345AF-7E57-46FD-A3AD-770C09917E34","rank":"normal"}],"P1460":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1460","hash":"57f7fea50d2ce1b39b695c4a1313582eed405e38","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":5976449,"id":"Q5976449"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q2599396$889E8FB1-3539-4206-AE5D-68AC7387C1F9","rank":"normal"}],"P205":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P205","hash":"61531c6124937b5de4a937f8eb7df091569c1e30","datavalue":{"value":"https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177732282","type":"string"},"datatype":"url"},"type":"statement","id":"Q2599396$C6F051AF-32C0-4BFA-AB0D-CA51660EB0BE","rank":"normal"}],"P388":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P388","hash":"33ea2bcea173ce5fd0c9a65e172b650b399f9435","datavalue":{"value":"W2097808586","type":"string"},"datatype":"external-id"},"type":"statement","id":"Q2599396$2B644E31-C3C6-4EBF-9F96-A2EA5F485CFF","rank":"normal"}],"P12":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P12","hash":"8ce5b5d7df9ef0c306590baacb958b153261c574","datavalue":{"value":"Q100530692","type":"string"},"datatype":"external-id"},"type":"statement","id":"Q2599396$E70B97AB-29F2-49D2-B26A-121446BB76E7","rank":"normal"}],"P27":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P27","hash":"c0d78197d55d737ac1c5c2a30daa558c42ec019f","datavalue":{"value":"10.1214/AOMS/1177732282","type":"string"},"datatype":"external-id"},"type":"statement","id":"Q2599396$3B0612EF-F074-4A54-817E-2FF711C2EAC4","rank":"normal"}]},"sitelinks":{"mardi":{"site":"mardi","title":"A modification of Bayes' problem.","badges":[],"url":"https://portal.mardi4nfdi.de/wiki/A_modification_of_Bayes%27_problem."}}}}}