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besch\u00e4ftigen uns in dieser Arbeit mit der Modellierung von kategorialen Zielvariablen, die entweder innerhalb eines Clusters abh\u00e4ngig sind oder aber einen zeitlichen Zusammenhang aufgrund einer wiederholten Beobachtung aufweisen. Diese Datenkonstellation tritt in der Praxis sehr h\u00e4ufig auf. So wurde beispielsweise in der Waldschadensstudie, die wir im Abschnitt 1.1 ausf\u00fchrlich beschreiben, der Sch\u00e4digungsgrad verschiedener Baumarten in den Kategorien ``keine'', ``leichte'' und ``deutliche bis starke Sch\u00e4digung'' gemessen. W\u00e4hrend des Studienzeitraums wurden die Standorte der B\u00e4ume von 1983 bis 1994 j\u00e4hrlich besucht. Damit liegen zeitlich abh\u00e4ngige, 3-kategoriale Zielvariablen vor. Ziel der statistischen Analyse ist die Bestimmung des Einflusses von Kovariablen, wie Bestandsalter, Beschirmungsgrad am Standort und pH-Wert des Bodens, auf den mittleren Sch\u00e4digungsgrad der Baumarten. Fragestellungen dieser Art k\u00f6nnen mit marginalen Modellen, die den Einflu\u00df von erkl\u00e4renden Variablen auf die Kategoriewahrscheinlichkeiten (Responsewahrscheinlichkeiten) der Zielvariablen (Responsevariablen) quantifizieren, bearbeitet werden. Die bisher in der Literatur vorgeschlagenen Ans\u00e4tze verwenden zur Modellierung des Kovariableneinflusses fast ausschlie\u00dflich feste, parametrische Kovariableneffekte. Die zentrale Idee der vorliegenden Arbeit ist, diese oft zu restriktive Annahme fallenzulassen und mit Effekten zu arbeiten, die in Abh\u00e4ngigkeit von anderen Kovariablen variieren. Auf das Waldschadensbeispiel angewandt, bedeutet dies, da\u00df wir die Effekte der Alterskategorien, die wir mit \\(A^{(1)}\\) und \\(A^{(2)}\\) bezeichnen, in Abh\u00e4ngigkeit von der Zeit variieren lassen. F\u00fcr den Einflu\u00df des pH-Werts \\(PH\\) nehmen wir eine flexible, nichtparametrische funktionale Form an. Die Effekte der Kategorien des Beschirmungsgrades \\(CD^{(1)}\\) und \\(CD^{(2)}\\) modellieren wir dagegen mit festen Parametern. Damit k\u00f6nnen wir zur Modellierung der ordinalen Struktur der Zielvariablen das kumulative logistische Modell \\[ \\text{logit} \\bigl( pr(Y_t\\leq r)\\bigr)= \\gamma_r(t)+ \\gamma_3(t)A^{(1)} +\\gamma_4 (t)A^{(2)} +\\gamma_5 (PH_t)+ \\gamma_6CD_t^{(1)} +\\gamma_7 CD_t^{(2)} \\] \\[ \\text{mit }r=1,2 \\text{ und logit} \\biggl(pr(Y_t\\leq r)\\biggr) =\\ln\\biggl(pr (Y_t\\leq r)/(1-pr\\bigl( Y_t\\leq r))\\biggr) \\] verwenden.","type":"string"},"datatype":"string"},"type":"statement","id":"Q3836613$8B53546A-1F80-4065-859E-3C1D63B6C40C","rank":"normal"}]},"sitelinks":{"mardi":{"site":"mardi","title":"Publication:3836613","badges":[],"url":"https://portal.mardi4nfdi.de/wiki/Publication:3836613"}}}}}