{"entities":{"Q428238":{"pageid":430005,"ns":120,"title":"Item:Q428238","lastrevid":61805346,"modified":"2026-04-11T01:46:45Z","type":"item","id":"Q428238","labels":{"en":{"language":"en","value":"Inference for ecological dynamical systems: a case study of two endemic diseases"}},"descriptions":{"en":{"language":"en","value":"scientific article; zbMATH DE number 6047843"}},"aliases":{},"claims":{"P31":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P31","hash":"fd5912e4dab4b881a8eb0eb27e7893fef55176ad","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":56887,"id":"Q56887"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q428238$83A1FE21-9F38-4574-850B-C918682C2041","rank":"normal"}],"P159":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P159","hash":"94d81d8cea8e6e7019c13540d4030785c42b7287","datavalue":{"value":{"text":"Inference for ecological dynamical systems: a case study of two endemic diseases","language":"en"},"type":"monolingualtext"},"datatype":"monolingualtext"},"type":"statement","id":"Q428238$AB27B4D3-C778-45D9-9760-D52F02B91108","rank":"normal"}],"P225":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P225","hash":"27d9202e48c1bdbb021486764f12a61909113750","datavalue":{"value":"1239.92076","type":"string"},"datatype":"external-id"},"type":"statement","id":"Q428238$11A27992-DF10-421B-AC58-D3DE63F5956B","rank":"normal"}],"P27":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P27","hash":"9a7eec9ce7c18f21d59c859ef2ac3fde545c8f36","datavalue":{"value":"10.1155/2012/390694","type":"string"},"datatype":"external-id"},"type":"statement","id":"Q428238$DF9748F2-D337-4D63-86DE-3540F6EF3F5B","rank":"normal"}],"P16":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P16","hash":"d72945a6ebf693f8358936af1fb20e0aaeff37aa","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":428237,"id":"Q428237"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q428238$3469AD93-F456-412B-8012-977113C425C4","rank":"normal"}],"P200":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P200","hash":"ae2a137607979ebaa11579b7aa87d8ebbaf2710b","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":278087,"id":"Q278087"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q428238$DB03DAED-8A1C-4018-80FA-A043743258FA","rank":"normal"}],"P28":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P28","hash":"555fba5bdc6c0bd8b767e7cf573522b7525626a8","datavalue":{"value":{"time":"+2012-06-19T00:00:00Z","timezone":0,"before":0,"after":0,"precision":11,"calendarmodel":"http://www.wikidata.org/entity/Q1985727"},"type":"time"},"datatype":"time"},"type":"statement","id":"Q428238$420468D2-5613-4A4D-9C9E-356A07B59301","rank":"normal"}],"P1448":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1448","hash":"ca6d90c722a3b8bbdfaa44310a5cba7e0badf60c","datavalue":{"value":"Summary: A Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo method is used to infer parameters for an open stochastic epidemiological model: the Markovian susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model, which is suitable for modeling and simulating recurrent epidemics. This allows exploring two major problems of inference appearing in many mechanistic population models. First, trajectories of these processes are often only partly observed. For example, during an epidemic the transmission process is only partly observable, one cannot record infection times. Therefore, one only records cases (infections) as the observations. As a result some means of imputing or reconstructing individuals in the susceptible cases class must be accomplished. Second, the official reporting of observations (cases in epidemiology) is typically done not as they are actually recorded but at some temporal interval over which they have been aggregated.   To address these issues, this paper investigates the following problems. Parameter inference for a perfectly sampled open Markovian SIR is first considered. Next inference for an imperfectly observed sample path of the system is studied. Although this second problem has been solved for the case of closed epidemics, it has proven quite difficult for the case of open recurrent epidemics. Lastly, application of the statistical theory is made to measles and pertussis epidemic time series data from 60 UK cities.","type":"string"},"datatype":"string"},"type":"statement","id":"Q428238$9B362601-EF23-4253-BD94-1F5BCA1455E6","rank":"normal"}],"P226":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P226","hash":"9f896fcbc322f4da683173f410784c05cfe9e768","datavalue":{"value":"92D30","type":"string"},"datatype":"external-id"},"type":"statement","id":"Q428238$12331759-AC57-41D7-ACD3-13F334ABF8ED","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P226","hash":"b23b4581d19061667c697da14a890aa055e6f323","datavalue":{"value":"65C40","type":"string"},"datatype":"external-id"},"type":"statement","id":"Q428238$F647E096-AEE9-4E97-8DDC-E4A96A847580","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P226","hash":"708a6f1a75f978962215fcdf6748c16c77f4fd6e","datavalue":{"value":"62P10","type":"string"},"datatype":"external-id"},"type":"statement","id":"Q428238$FBE0DC89-6B95-4301-A55C-BC985F8D948D","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P226","hash":"2474c99ceba943e04dda4ddfffedfe45f5fdfd62","datavalue":{"value":"62F15","type":"string"},"datatype":"external-id"},"type":"statement","id":"Q428238$FD987F28-B631-4C4C-8457-AF01314FDCBC","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P226","hash":"29a178185dbcbe6a9a658bfa3f45b1d0e718a0bc","datavalue":{"value":"92D40","type":"string"},"datatype":"external-id"},"type":"statement","id":"Q428238$5A969E6D-7D93-4103-97A8-2634B8454CDC","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P226","hash":"5ecf4422b4bdcb52d650b1f66059a372dffc2cb2","datavalue":{"value":"92C60","type":"string"},"datatype":"external-id"},"type":"statement","id":"Q428238$0F49526F-2A9F-4745-97B8-C92876BAA837","rank":"normal"}],"P1451":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1451","hash":"d6f5ce9a0112556ff203b6ebb2e59dcf4d0c65e5","datavalue":{"value":"6047843","type":"string"},"datatype":"external-id"},"type":"statement","id":"Q428238$C1E4823C-7FC7-45C4-B333-7F59876CCF0E","rank":"normal"}],"P12":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P12","hash":"ba27a5df562f32d9c84aa7c6c89399f481aabe4e","datavalue":{"value":"Q34246977","type":"string"},"datatype":"external-id"},"type":"statement","id":"Q428238$379B9D43-0085-40CD-936D-47C8FDDE28EF","rank":"normal"}],"P1463":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1463","hash":"d4171a100bf6a7c5469f9eef6994b35ace0e78da","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":22960,"id":"Q22960"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q428238$94888271-08E5-4BF5-92CC-B384ECF74AD2","rank":"normal"}],"P1460":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1460","hash":"57f7fea50d2ce1b39b695c4a1313582eed405e38","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":5976449,"id":"Q5976449"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q428238$DD1CD379-92F4-47A6-B815-5EB7A9CEDC32","rank":"normal"}],"P205":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P205","hash":"9e0b6865fc5f9aa7a8982b3c19150b8b95e559fd","datavalue":{"value":"https://doi.org/10.1155/2012/390694","type":"string"},"datatype":"url"},"type":"statement","id":"Q428238$11B88A3C-1D53-4F17-AEAD-F52FE7E21DC1","rank":"normal"}],"P388":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P388","hash":"62051a01e3b3e696926e1b3187e2a67bf881fe5e","datavalue":{"value":"W2033803374","type":"string"},"datatype":"external-id"},"type":"statement","id":"Q428238$6CF3B1A2-A01C-4F17-BC07-B760F5111C7A","rank":"normal"}],"P223":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P223","hash":"9c70fc0e862f1e17f6c9d335cab65464e65fcaee","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":3445774,"id":"Q3445774"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q428238$394FB660-11F6-40C9-BD55-496A407198CC","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P223","hash":"4379ab84050b1ab95e53e009b0f9f95f41962ccb","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":5290928,"id":"Q5290928"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q428238$6B7F05C3-CFD5-4584-A8A2-FE32BA767E8C","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P223","hash":"667cdb9e4b6b285f6a81eda61e6702c4820374a8","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":1581775,"id":"Q1581775"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q428238$96075332-FA43-45F9-A6EC-A3E0130A3E8D","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P223","hash":"7fa76b0fc328eca9f9692be5e1aefd034217c88f","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":1867111,"id":"Q1867111"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q428238$81ADC4E8-AC84-4EE5-868F-27226BE53E4C","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P223","hash":"7bb4c6e1757f5cb2bbbf527e22857113f6dc0765","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":4237751,"id":"Q4237751"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q428238$21DB0CFC-DF9F-4364-84FE-4FC0219A387C","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P223","hash":"a8a334d68d831309aa4b01eba5bdfcaed0780e43","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":4399828,"id":"Q4399828"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q428238$E0D70FF7-6C37-4ED3-A766-EF6C3C3B7ED0","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P223","hash":"ae6590b7a2fcfa5f0c744ae2c1ddd20d198f0dc6","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":5795307,"id":"Q5795307"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q428238$74B1E788-4C0D-4F7A-A2E9-8BA0C6AFA31E","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P223","hash":"97ea715fd540d17414526df350c95c30bae1a7b9","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":3292891,"id":"Q3292891"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q428238$F57C88FD-58BA-46F7-829B-F519A8E810E9","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P223","hash":"9ea73b689796eccbd094391a9f8bf092dd9f03e5","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":4864758,"id":"Q4864758"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q428238$59B009D0-ED60-493A-A45C-8F5C8B514E65","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P223","hash":"8ff70c4f345e2d356320b00e97da6860946e9440","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":4272620,"id":"Q4272620"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q428238$9B0B30A4-A2A0-4B06-AFDA-25626C6513F0","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P223","hash":"34ae8f2be540de77a0f921e0a414a6f27c7c2acd","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":4102555,"id":"Q4102555"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q428238$F9F3ABA7-E726-4EFB-A98F-3D52F056AE8A","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P223","hash":"83cbf2e80e771249591bba36ca2271ecfc79c6fb","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":4512965,"id":"Q4512965"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q428238$43C087A9-C314-4D35-8770-18EBC3903D9C","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P223","hash":"cb204bc1116e421869b6089ba368d837000d066d","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":3274551,"id":"Q3274551"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q428238$8D036DA2-111D-4A91-9962-A050898D58F1","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P223","hash":"39438508f19cd7fb01954a227dc1f303c25468ac","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":4101645,"id":"Q4101645"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q428238$B379C81B-0DE1-49D4-B9A0-624CC47ADF07","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P223","hash":"0692afae7bb3ad39c9edbbdc3731f55f2a10ca2d","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":4237752,"id":"Q4237752"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q428238$0C8D963A-E856-49F2-BE3C-5FCCEA831C2A","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P223","hash":"265c22a6f13de260c56b72bdf9d782502190be40","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":4407535,"id":"Q4407535"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q428238$6F1BBE61-049A-4F0B-A993-6A10078204A8","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P223","hash":"4dad0ce37835b97ee673bb56b90b3e686ee46e1d","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":4748912,"id":"Q4748912"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q428238$4479ADDE-BF9C-42A8-9171-9B3F9610D848","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P223","hash":"7b282f1971fe356b73f51702f80bd9d0ad9a46ff","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":2756783,"id":"Q2756783"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q428238$3AB70E8F-473C-4CC9-AA32-B4854116A28E","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P223","hash":"b3e90a97bfb53cc5501a690c456c4939c42ad43f","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":4807438,"id":"Q4807438"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q428238$1DB19E3D-0125-4829-8CF2-5C26127FDC28","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P223","hash":"3cd6bc4ca9a4ecfb10ede964f895fd3908faf59a","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":5425001,"id":"Q5425001"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q428238$12CD2BE5-99E1-4E86-B0FA-436C8D446052","rank":"normal"}],"P1635":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1635","hash":"64aab4cb3a93eb7cecf2aa3a5f64dafa7ea89102","datavalue":{"value":"journals/cmmm/Vasco12","type":"string"},"datatype":"external-id"},"type":"statement","id":"Q428238$8AD7C86B-331C-4B57-8152-3C4E441C525E","rank":"normal"}],"P1643":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1643","hash":"60b57c5882c5d7bd45b8a1f1df9f3bc13b992756","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":5757779,"id":"Q5757779"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","qualifiers":{"P1659":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1659","hash":"4560ebb7a5ae122c8909925ae96e29a3e7bcca69","datavalue":{"value":{"amount":"+0.8049294948577881","unit":"1"},"type":"quantity"},"datatype":"quantity"}],"P1660":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1660","hash":"a327a09ea0305e98d5cf33bd4036320e19f2aed0","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":6821328,"id":"Q6821328"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"}]},"qualifiers-order":["P1659","P1660"],"id":"Q428238$330F56C9-71CE-4AE8-9F50-8492F3689B8A","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1643","hash":"17d0e67bcccbdeec9a171bba6d297a11c8a30096","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":5222474,"id":"Q5222474"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","qualifiers":{"P1659":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1659","hash":"2b26f576c8e645724267fa8d84e5adacc8e5dc10","datavalue":{"value":{"amount":"+0.804679274559021","unit":"1"},"type":"quantity"},"datatype":"quantity"}],"P1660":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1660","hash":"a327a09ea0305e98d5cf33bd4036320e19f2aed0","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":6821328,"id":"Q6821328"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"}]},"qualifiers-order":["P1659","P1660"],"id":"Q428238$8B19F5A0-B717-4ABC-B4FB-BD7BB4469312","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1643","hash":"09da998fb6fe94afaa879b25b292536a2586cbed","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":2893224,"id":"Q2893224"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","qualifiers":{"P1659":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1659","hash":"d9244bba98355c4b6a9822eb1282d9878d3a23a1","datavalue":{"value":{"amount":"+0.7966699004173279","unit":"1"},"type":"quantity"},"datatype":"quantity"}],"P1660":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1660","hash":"a327a09ea0305e98d5cf33bd4036320e19f2aed0","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":6821328,"id":"Q6821328"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"}]},"qualifiers-order":["P1659","P1660"],"id":"Q428238$BB870F9A-E3C8-4F22-98C2-5E6F0CF1A3A2","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1643","hash":"1c0d457e52ceb7f940bf2e43103d20d2314100ed","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":1926531,"id":"Q1926531"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","qualifiers":{"P1659":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1659","hash":"02b7d08fa7836f19726aaa59fe62a95386b6c40d","datavalue":{"value":{"amount":"+0.7867730855941772","unit":"1"},"type":"quantity"},"datatype":"quantity"}],"P1660":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1660","hash":"a327a09ea0305e98d5cf33bd4036320e19f2aed0","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":6821328,"id":"Q6821328"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"}]},"qualifiers-order":["P1659","P1660"],"id":"Q428238$0AE9B83F-FE45-48DD-9F20-CBEB96912CA9","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1643","hash":"2d5daaf66ac6b099cbd4c3e28f9bc49d688a8a0e","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":1867111,"id":"Q1867111"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","qualifiers":{"P1659":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1659","hash":"9e0094544657170feab890c6963850becd6b4196","datavalue":{"value":{"amount":"+0.7847028374671936","unit":"1"},"type":"quantity"},"datatype":"quantity"}],"P1660":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1660","hash":"a327a09ea0305e98d5cf33bd4036320e19f2aed0","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":6821328,"id":"Q6821328"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"}]},"qualifiers-order":["P1659","P1660"],"id":"Q428238$970CBE48-D1EA-4AC9-977B-BD7031EA0E10","rank":"normal"}]},"sitelinks":{"mardi":{"site":"mardi","title":"Inference for ecological dynamical systems: a case study of two endemic diseases","badges":[],"url":"https://portal.mardi4nfdi.de/wiki/Inference_for_ecological_dynamical_systems:_a_case_study_of_two_endemic_diseases"}}}}}