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calculations for the spread of AIDS in the Federal Republic of Germany","language":"en"},"type":"monolingualtext"},"datatype":"monolingualtext"},"type":"statement","id":"Q4353142$55888B91-7183-41AC-86DE-972A9547FD85","rank":"normal"}],"P1448":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1448","hash":"5608186e22a0ed55fd75376dcf315db57620fb53","datavalue":{"value":"Der vorliegende Artikel ist eine Kurzfassung einer umfangreichen Studie der Autoren, \\textit{B. Ch. Schmidt} und \\textit{U. P\u00f6hle} [Die Ausbreitung von HIV/Aids in Ballungsgebieten. Tech. Rep. TR 91-9, Konrad-Zuse-Zentrum Berlin (1991)], in der Simulationsrechnungen auf der Basis eines Kompartmentmodells von 1650 gew\u00f6hnlichen Differentialgleichungen vorgelegt worden waren. Das mathematische Modell (Abschnitt 2) geht aus von einer Einteilung der Bev\u00f6lkerung nach 9 Risikogruppen und ber\u00fccksichtigt 3 Infektionsstadien; dar\u00fcber hinaus enth\u00e4lt es die demographische Struktur der Bundesrepublik Deutschland (alte Bundesl\u00e4nder), die f\u00fcr die Dynamik der AIDS-Seuche wesentlich ist. Die entstehenden Differentialgleichungen sind nichtlinear und ``steif'', was bedeutet, da\u00df auf jeden Fall die Jacobimatrix der rechten Seite oder eine geeignete Approximation mitzuf\u00fchren ist. In Abschnitt 3 wird eine neue Technik der ``dynamischen Ausd\u00fcnnung'' innerhalb einer linear-impliziten Eulermethode mit Extrapolation vorgestellt, die speziell an diesem Beispiel erstmals getestet wurde. Die mit dieser Methode erzielten Rechenzeitbeschleunigungen machten Sensitivit\u00e4tsstudien erst m\u00f6glich, ohne die eine sinnvolle Simulation und Bewertung des mathematischen Modells nicht machbar gewesen w\u00e4re. Ein minimaler Ausschnitt der Ergebnisse der Prognoserechnungen aus der o.g. Studie wird schlie\u00dflich in Abschnitt 4 dargestellt. Diese Ergebnisse aus dem Jahre 1991 sind unver\u00e4ndert \u00fcbernommen, so da\u00df sich ihr Prognosewert gut beurteilen l\u00e4\u00dft -- im Kontrast zu manchen anderen Prognosen auf diesem Gebiet. For the entire collection see [Zbl 0833.00027].","type":"string"},"datatype":"string"},"type":"statement","id":"Q4353142$DF91889E-0334-4A9A-87AA-F96AD25C613B","rank":"normal"}]},"sitelinks":{"mardi":{"site":"mardi","title":"Prognosis calculations for the spread of AIDS in the Federal Republic of Germany","badges":[],"url":"https://portal.mardi4nfdi.de/wiki/Prognosis_calculations_for_the_spread_of_AIDS_in_the_Federal_Republic_of_Germany"}}}}}