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livre est un instrument de travail pour historien de la d\u00e9mographie. Consacr\u00e9 aux manuscrits de Leibniz qui ressortiraient aujourd'hui de cette discipline, il en offre un commentaire litt\u00e9ral et reproduit l'un d'eux \u00e9crit en fran\u00e7ais, l'\\textit{Essay de quelques raisonnemens nouveaux sur la vie humaine et sur le nombre des hommes}. Toutefois, ces concepts et calculs d\u00e9mographiques, essentiellement de vie moyenne, ne sont pas \u00e9labor\u00e9s en vue d'une analyse de la population mais de l'estimation des rentes fonci\u00e8res, donc d'un objet non d\u00e9mographique. Cela ne disqualifie certes pas l'entreprise comme anachronique pour autant qu'on a affaire \u00e0 la statistique au sens allemand du terme, c'est-\u00e0-dire \u00e0 la science de l'administration publique. Ces rentes sont en effet des rentes perp\u00e9tuelles sur l'\u00c9tat. Si l'on peut admirer, comme nous y invite Marc Barbut dans sa pr\u00e9face, la virtuosit\u00e9 calculatrice de Leibniz, force est de reconna\u00eetre que c'est beaucoup d'effets pour rien tant les hypoth\u00e8ses sont simplificatrices. Passe encore pour l'hypoth\u00e8se de stationnarit\u00e9 de la population, mais celle d'une \u00e9galit\u00e9 des d\u00e9c\u00e8s \u00e0 chaque \u00e2ge, malgr\u00e9 la r\u00e9f\u00e9rence aux \u00e2ges climact\u00e9riques, emp\u00eache Leibniz de distinguer entre vie moyenne et vie probable, c'est-\u00e0-dire de faire la premi\u00e8re distinction constitutive de la discipline. Autrement dit, des hypoth\u00e8ses trop simplificatrices pour que les analyses soient f\u00e9condes. On comprend alors que Leibniz ait laiss\u00e9 ces notes dans ses tiroirs. Je reprocherai aux auteurs leur exc\u00e8s de timidit\u00e9, leur absence d'interpr\u00e9tation. On ne sait rien des raisons qui poussent Leibniz \u00e0 s'int\u00e9resser \u00e0 ces probl\u00e8mes dans les ann\u00e9es 1680. Rien, ni relativement \u00e0 son \u0153uvre, ni relativement \u00e0 ce qui se fait, sur ce sujet, en Angleterre ou en Hollande. On n'a droit \u00e0 aucune analyse du fait que Leibniz appelle le calcul des probabilit\u00e9s ``une estime des apparences''. Que sont ces apparences? Rien non plus sur le fait que l'axiome d'\u00e9quiprobabilit\u00e9 est une suspension du principe de raison suffisante, centrale dans toute la pens\u00e9e leibnizienne: cela expliquerait-il que le philosophe des compossibles, de la combinatoire, ait si peu contribu\u00e9 \u00e0 ``l'\u00e9mergence des probabilit\u00e9s''? Rien non plus, sinon, certes, le d\u00e9montage minutieux de son m\u00e9canisme, sur l'id\u00e9e m\u00eame du rabat. Pourquoi concevoir le calcul des rentes fonci\u00e8res comme un arbitrage inter temporel entre la vie et l'\u00e9ternit\u00e9? Comme si cela allait de soi! M\u00eame en consid\u00e9rant l'\u00c9tat comme immortel ou \u00e9ternel, en la mati\u00e8re, ne lui arrive-t-il pas de faire banqueroute? Et puis Leibniz consid\u00e8re, semble-t-il, les individus eux-m\u00eames comme des investisseurs sur l'\u00e9ternit\u00e9. N'y avait-il vraiment rien \u00e0 dire sur cette conception? Il est regrettable, on l'aura compris, que les auteurs ne nous aient livr\u00e9 que des mat\u00e9riaux, au demeurant d\u00e9j\u00e0 accessibles. J'esp\u00e8re simplement qu'ils vont poursuivre leurs recherches sur cette \u00e9ventuelle source leibnizienne de la d\u00e9mographie et qu'une seconde \u00e9dition leur donnera l'occasion de nous enseigner ce qu'il faut en penser. \\url{http://histoiremesure.revues.org/document1243.html}.","type":"string"},"datatype":"string"},"type":"statement","id":"Q4831076$F2142F4F-FA69-413A-B284-7879991B24E8","rank":"normal"}]},"sitelinks":{"mardi":{"site":"mardi","title":"Scientific article; zbMATH DE number 2123556","badges":[],"url":"https://portal.mardi4nfdi.de/wiki/Scientific_article;_zbMATH_DE_number_2123556"}}}}}