{"entities":{"Q760117":{"pageid":761966,"ns":120,"title":"Item:Q760117","lastrevid":64125528,"modified":"2026-04-11T17:48:32Z","type":"item","id":"Q760117","labels":{"en":{"language":"en","value":"Turning probabilities into expectations"}},"descriptions":{"en":{"language":"en","value":"scientific article; zbMATH DE number 3883408"}},"aliases":{},"claims":{"P31":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P31","hash":"fd5912e4dab4b881a8eb0eb27e7893fef55176ad","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":56887,"id":"Q56887"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q760117$3E55668C-DF62-467E-BBB4-D5C7B360C994","rank":"normal"}],"P159":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P159","hash":"7e711ed2d03c90dc7432dfebac1043f0d9458b87","datavalue":{"value":{"text":"Turning probabilities into expectations","language":"en"},"type":"monolingualtext"},"datatype":"monolingualtext"},"type":"statement","id":"Q760117$C288B772-4E82-4525-8FCF-40923533F1B4","rank":"normal"}],"P225":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P225","hash":"d8f4e788679b4c7a840b552dba8710cbcaddb6ef","datavalue":{"value":"0554.62028","type":"string"},"datatype":"external-id"},"type":"statement","id":"Q760117$6027F2D0-8624-4B25-88EB-E61E64144AEE","rank":"normal"}],"P16":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P16","hash":"6606e48951b34252527f0b1daa9a86b8efaf9851","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":177408,"id":"Q177408"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q760117$EEB4D28A-6F88-405F-905D-582113FFAD0A","rank":"normal"}],"P200":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P200","hash":"0b73f6da78562727d9e1c290db85e0053cdeb667","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":60819,"id":"Q60819"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q760117$E6DA8D08-2615-4F72-960A-D51A086E5A35","rank":"normal"}],"P28":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P28","hash":"2ee0f220147ae8bc749a64db56839865dbc4f127","datavalue":{"value":{"time":"+1984-00-00T00:00:00Z","timezone":0,"before":0,"after":0,"precision":9,"calendarmodel":"http://www.wikidata.org/entity/Q1985727"},"type":"time"},"datatype":"time"},"type":"statement","id":"Q760117$B4B74829-852D-444D-A23C-4EC2EB7ED301","rank":"normal"}],"P1448":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1448","hash":"86ec577d0045d629770c3563d40ca186cc168419","datavalue":{"value":"Suppose that you specify your prior probability that an unknown quantity \\(\\theta\\) lies in each member of a disjoint partition of the values of \\(\\theta\\). What does this imply about your prior mean and variance for \\(\\theta\\), and your posterior mean and variance, given sample information?    We provide a partial answer by modifying a suggestion of \\textit{C. F. Manski} [ibid. 9, 59-65 (1981; Zbl 0451.62004)] for incorporating the cost of specification of prior probabilities into the analysis of decision problems. This modification leads to a simple explicit solution in the problem of estimating the mean of a distribution, with quadratic loss, in the class of linear functions of the sample, and this solution is related to the problem of turning probabilities into expectations.","type":"string"},"datatype":"string"},"type":"statement","id":"Q760117$767E2DE0-06D2-4579-8EDA-8AAFF6E22CB1","rank":"normal"}],"P226":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P226","hash":"2474c99ceba943e04dda4ddfffedfe45f5fdfd62","datavalue":{"value":"62F15","type":"string"},"datatype":"external-id"},"type":"statement","id":"Q760117$7F0FECBC-31C8-4144-9FA3-BDA1D3A699C3","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P226","hash":"3866ee96b4b7ddfafdb7b788eaa87fdd43bbf474","datavalue":{"value":"62G05","type":"string"},"datatype":"external-id"},"type":"statement","id":"Q760117$9651A087-7E99-47D0-863B-FA335CE7810A","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P226","hash":"241d5694d3313b87a4a7a3061b2c41c0b41fc4e8","datavalue":{"value":"62A01","type":"string"},"datatype":"external-id"},"type":"statement","id":"Q760117$8D12546F-1123-42D7-A3C0-7B2383943DB9","rank":"normal"}],"P1451":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1451","hash":"baf26a09b5cde28ac885f8521860de801549928d","datavalue":{"value":"3883408","type":"string"},"datatype":"external-id"},"type":"statement","id":"Q760117$D0B6D1A6-DA59-4B4E-B13A-BC6BA69F8355","rank":"normal"}],"P1450":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1450","hash":"9f6fa1fabfb0cbe7975f254db26fb1897f95d08d","datavalue":{"value":"midrisk","type":"string"},"datatype":"string"},"type":"statement","id":"Q760117$2627AE1D-E64F-41CC-BAC6-D23BE23E8B20","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1450","hash":"1a84356600fc27e88880587af8382056b4adab12","datavalue":{"value":"linear Bayes rules","type":"string"},"datatype":"string"},"type":"statement","id":"Q760117$D0F73579-3712-4B58-A6DB-AB97C8673673","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1450","hash":"f916f42e71dc8e169be45bee15ca59aed38481c2","datavalue":{"value":"elicitation of subjective probabilities","type":"string"},"datatype":"string"},"type":"statement","id":"Q760117$7BD04A44-3C26-4929-861B-D74E495F2365","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1450","hash":"a65d102b4649abac169d46e8e42e43643b26c04c","datavalue":{"value":"prior probability","type":"string"},"datatype":"string"},"type":"statement","id":"Q760117$68D53F5C-27AA-46A3-9259-03D8CB3DCBA4","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1450","hash":"647466e537a11ca1e8f122fd2279cd97dd3fcbfe","datavalue":{"value":"prior mean and variance","type":"string"},"datatype":"string"},"type":"statement","id":"Q760117$8B6B95E0-1F39-414A-A599-5C47BC06B021","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1450","hash":"67277580bbc4da5ee9c852297a0e465c937c9aef","datavalue":{"value":"posterior mean and variance","type":"string"},"datatype":"string"},"type":"statement","id":"Q760117$677332BC-6FCD-4861-8500-42C6B3B33753","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1450","hash":"b287dcbb6ce39bb8703e39ca7d110d0fe636af2c","datavalue":{"value":"cost of specification of prior probabilities","type":"string"},"datatype":"string"},"type":"statement","id":"Q760117$FFA3E22A-B2EA-435C-9265-FEA9C1671228","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1450","hash":"49b90dc550e4e962a66d2e5957c77522a0a1ebad","datavalue":{"value":"estimating the mean","type":"string"},"datatype":"string"},"type":"statement","id":"Q760117$01A423F9-237C-4445-83AF-F6A93DC3C2D1","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1450","hash":"98aa771782df14b15b70c455d1999cb33c7b0f08","datavalue":{"value":"quadratic loss","type":"string"},"datatype":"string"},"type":"statement","id":"Q760117$849A6BC0-9989-4F79-BDB2-7C1FAA55711B","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1450","hash":"62c0f24ab505b0c9d1dbe873dc5f5fb3360ca703","datavalue":{"value":"linear functions","type":"string"},"datatype":"string"},"type":"statement","id":"Q760117$5F51E7A4-11CC-4CC8-A24B-14F4A880223F","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1450","hash":"5fc0dfea9e4c14a74965db06f3075f09270c84d4","datavalue":{"value":"turning probabilities into expectations","type":"string"},"datatype":"string"},"type":"statement","id":"Q760117$71D913E5-D106-4868-9778-B60107C3D426","rank":"normal"}],"P1460":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1460","hash":"57f7fea50d2ce1b39b695c4a1313582eed405e38","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":5976449,"id":"Q5976449"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q760117$4E7D239D-B1C0-4A76-A9B9-D0DD10CD1373","rank":"normal"}],"P205":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P205","hash":"91be426e6caf09c3ea5ffea3bd031f1bc875afd0","datavalue":{"value":"https://doi.org/10.1214/aos/1176346812","type":"string"},"datatype":"url"},"type":"statement","id":"Q760117$E7C2C808-1DD7-49C4-B4BD-46B12FBB211E","rank":"normal"}],"P388":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P388","hash":"bf27c5698d0b72e67ed97989f8e471f70570e582","datavalue":{"value":"W2077683280","type":"string"},"datatype":"external-id"},"type":"statement","id":"Q760117$C2735209-29C9-4F76-9257-53DFB94EE178","rank":"normal"}],"P27":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P27","hash":"e506529be12e5d6bd3115cdb2c4ac868b3fb4cf2","datavalue":{"value":"10.1214/AOS/1176346812","type":"string"},"datatype":"external-id"},"type":"statement","id":"Q760117$1FEB3C3D-ADA6-4D27-BE80-14B18E49C544","rank":"normal"}],"P1643":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1643","hash":"92ab74ec3d2d351c617621886539ff2ce6d7e86c","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":1708890,"id":"Q1708890"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","qualifiers":{"P1659":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1659","hash":"816559aa73bb0c65fdab7a56fd43d192a725c036","datavalue":{"value":{"amount":"+0.87740195","unit":"1"},"type":"quantity"},"datatype":"quantity"}],"P1660":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1660","hash":"ba354e87a58191d58d132c60481c945a3234ce85","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":6534273,"id":"Q6534273"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"}]},"qualifiers-order":["P1659","P1660"],"id":"Q760117$C671FC2E-430B-4CDE-B81C-CEA0A14A0915","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1643","hash":"b58f9bab3f2b28f1e47a2919eafb83b03e943964","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":2994764,"id":"Q2994764"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","qualifiers":{"P1659":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1659","hash":"d5ad83f8eac9d717e304ae2782d7eaf9a91bfc7e","datavalue":{"value":{"amount":"+0.8727881","unit":"1"},"type":"quantity"},"datatype":"quantity"}],"P1660":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1660","hash":"ba354e87a58191d58d132c60481c945a3234ce85","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":6534273,"id":"Q6534273"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"}]},"qualifiers-order":["P1659","P1660"],"id":"Q760117$C4BD6BF2-5687-4F83-BDFD-9A0183D65648","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1643","hash":"53a7aa63e61dc413164fd36374822063529f07cb","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":5900621,"id":"Q5900621"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","qualifiers":{"P1659":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1659","hash":"8704aa78d711916aebd08ed0081497daddc1e324","datavalue":{"value":{"amount":"+0.8612948","unit":"1"},"type":"quantity"},"datatype":"quantity"}],"P1660":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1660","hash":"ba354e87a58191d58d132c60481c945a3234ce85","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":6534273,"id":"Q6534273"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"}]},"qualifiers-order":["P1659","P1660"],"id":"Q760117$3293AE3A-434A-4D90-99EF-BB90BF791EAC","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1643","hash":"db88a3bff784c54d1a72c84e0d9ca5106e718708","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":1311764,"id":"Q1311764"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","qualifiers":{"P1659":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1659","hash":"8c0cd2fe0199031a7cb8b325d01c1748163e803c","datavalue":{"value":{"amount":"+0.8535215","unit":"1"},"type":"quantity"},"datatype":"quantity"}],"P1660":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1660","hash":"ba354e87a58191d58d132c60481c945a3234ce85","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":6534273,"id":"Q6534273"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"}]},"qualifiers-order":["P1659","P1660"],"id":"Q760117$57CBF903-8D1B-41B9-AFF6-9A89EED13121","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1643","hash":"9d4fbaf07291ae3c5b746e73a1ff39029c0daef4","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":2934935,"id":"Q2934935"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","qualifiers":{"P1659":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1659","hash":"8768d09c27bf500a02a26ae7b1167ea32f7d34a7","datavalue":{"value":{"amount":"+0.85259926","unit":"1"},"type":"quantity"},"datatype":"quantity"}],"P1660":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1660","hash":"ba354e87a58191d58d132c60481c945a3234ce85","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":6534273,"id":"Q6534273"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"}]},"qualifiers-order":["P1659","P1660"],"id":"Q760117$E260DC31-C595-4B69-86F4-DE823603D850","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1643","hash":"bb7260b91a3fcd22300369709f67c870311f4cfd","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":4830377,"id":"Q4830377"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","qualifiers":{"P1659":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1659","hash":"2b20b69f5c303b3017585644860d03afcb15149e","datavalue":{"value":{"amount":"+0.85005563","unit":"1"},"type":"quantity"},"datatype":"quantity"}],"P1660":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1660","hash":"ba354e87a58191d58d132c60481c945a3234ce85","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":6534273,"id":"Q6534273"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"}]},"qualifiers-order":["P1659","P1660"],"id":"Q760117$D4E1456C-78F4-4FFE-BF45-EA54CDA9DC27","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1643","hash":"f07f82a2f02ae6c01943a1041d3e8039db7be44d","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":4942086,"id":"Q4942086"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","qualifiers":{"P1659":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1659","hash":"2b20b69f5c303b3017585644860d03afcb15149e","datavalue":{"value":{"amount":"+0.85005563","unit":"1"},"type":"quantity"},"datatype":"quantity"}],"P1660":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1660","hash":"ba354e87a58191d58d132c60481c945a3234ce85","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":6534273,"id":"Q6534273"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"}]},"qualifiers-order":["P1659","P1660"],"id":"Q760117$169B945D-A5FB-413C-856C-5AAAE47463F4","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1643","hash":"e18122e869331e6131813368158e530b62522256","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":2255190,"id":"Q2255190"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","qualifiers":{"P1659":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1659","hash":"bc390a5822c99fc97ef3a13f0a7d4563536699f1","datavalue":{"value":{"amount":"+0.8499595","unit":"1"},"type":"quantity"},"datatype":"quantity"}],"P1660":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1660","hash":"ba354e87a58191d58d132c60481c945a3234ce85","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":6534273,"id":"Q6534273"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"}]},"qualifiers-order":["P1659","P1660"],"id":"Q760117$8F7B2F94-E5FE-4B07-98BD-D9ED6CF2FB0F","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1643","hash":"32ea61bab6acc1ff12d92a49acba9545476f8363","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":640292,"id":"Q640292"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","qualifiers":{"P1659":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1659","hash":"2bbfb808c35fdf7fe7cbdda730f0c5151e298a86","datavalue":{"value":{"amount":"+0.8491105","unit":"1"},"type":"quantity"},"datatype":"quantity"}],"P1660":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1660","hash":"ba354e87a58191d58d132c60481c945a3234ce85","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":6534273,"id":"Q6534273"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"}]},"qualifiers-order":["P1659","P1660"],"id":"Q760117$9B719CF9-C5F1-4744-BF77-E4A820969827","rank":"normal"}]},"sitelinks":{"mardi":{"site":"mardi","title":"Turning probabilities into expectations","badges":[],"url":"https://portal.mardi4nfdi.de/wiki/Turning_probabilities_into_expectations"}}}}}