{"entities":{"Q90324":{"pageid":91612,"ns":120,"title":"Item:Q90324","lastrevid":59518434,"modified":"2026-04-10T12:58:10Z","type":"item","id":"Q90324","labels":{"en":{"language":"en","value":"Predicting the present with Bayesian structural time series"}},"descriptions":{"en":{"language":"en","value":"scientific article; zbMATH DE number 6379195"}},"aliases":{},"claims":{"P31":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P31","hash":"fd5912e4dab4b881a8eb0eb27e7893fef55176ad","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":56887,"id":"Q56887"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q90324$C783513C-BC74-4768-87AE-85527704302C","rank":"normal"}],"P200":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P200","hash":"6894cb84497d6cc4cfb41cb6f9b81a7ae3fab514","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":90322,"id":"Q90322"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q90324$DCD07FF1-2FD8-4DDD-A6A4-8A9F65BA6F4D","rank":"normal"}],"P26":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P26","hash":"5412d66313a7865b584c17c89e6ea8f1b0c53594","datavalue":{"value":"5","type":"string"},"datatype":"string"},"type":"statement","id":"Q90324$50488C00-08B0-4158-9B39-240B6B3C0DB1","rank":"normal"}],"P25":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P25","hash":"66c45483ea88dba3ce226a046cdfdb20a08cb862","datavalue":{"value":"1/2","type":"string"},"datatype":"string"},"type":"statement","id":"Q90324$9ED102BC-3070-4D24-9A49-FC636181E4D2","rank":"normal"}],"P128":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P128","hash":"35f811fa959c377fbfe78d5a4bae8aff695a8155","datavalue":{"value":"4","type":"string"},"datatype":"string"},"type":"statement","id":"Q90324$6058CA88-0BC2-47F5-916A-D5BAE68A7CCD","rank":"normal"}],"P28":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P28","hash":"d7c2a0f503a85b9f55e27eaa6018f42e140fff79","datavalue":{"value":{"time":"+2014-00-00T00:00:00Z","timezone":0,"before":0,"after":0,"precision":9,"calendarmodel":"http://www.wikidata.org/entity/Q1985727"},"type":"time"},"datatype":"time"},"type":"statement","id":"Q90324$7291D557-299D-4CCA-9060-53864347CE96","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P28","hash":"8de0977d679d7cededaa51226cfc071a8f4c9542","datavalue":{"value":{"time":"+2014-12-10T00:00:00Z","timezone":0,"before":0,"after":0,"precision":11,"calendarmodel":"http://www.wikidata.org/entity/Q1985727"},"type":"time"},"datatype":"time"},"type":"statement","id":"Q90324$9D467298-47EA-4C92-9CC6-607414C460CF","rank":"normal"}],"P16":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P16","hash":"0b5500e4f5ddd6fa14297c1bd8de916fc06455eb","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":90320,"id":"Q90320"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q90324$9CDE3673-5881-46DC-B076-C43F9B0486C3","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P16","hash":"adbe3a7f316f64796e5dd0edfa3bbcfa66a24284","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":90323,"id":"Q90323"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q90324$532778EC-F33D-4223-AAE7-39F20341CE8B","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P16","hash":"543920be68858645dc492a9ca35ec60b657ac493","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":478009,"id":"Q478009"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q90324$3123AF85-8F9F-4DA5-9159-B9ACC3A97C19","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P16","hash":"6f098a064e6a8f79754abf98eeb22ba4085e2d30","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":451482,"id":"Q451482"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q90324$FEF156AE-0416-437D-A9CE-0E8D756E0534","rank":"normal"}],"P159":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P159","hash":"0f17153fb60a52eea8e06a238b73b7ff2a4a0e21","datavalue":{"value":{"text":"Predicting the present with Bayesian structural time series","language":"en"},"type":"monolingualtext"},"datatype":"monolingualtext"},"type":"statement","id":"Q90324$3F84FE41-B49C-4B04-9218-EB70340264CB","rank":"normal"}],"P225":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P225","hash":"2596eabd7b39543584baad62fe4228843b5ff2ae","datavalue":{"value":"1302.62289","type":"string"},"datatype":"external-id"},"type":"statement","id":"Q90324$763CA1BE-771B-4315-AC46-3DB0C84EDCAA","rank":"normal"}],"P1448":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1448","hash":"eb4f1627ce369b6dc8585b7234973ad0b4efa0ba","datavalue":{"value":"Summary: This article describes a system for short term forecasting based on an ensemble prediction that averages over different combinations of predictors. The system combines a structural time series model for the target series with a regression component capturing the contributions of contemporaneous search query data. A spike-and-slab prior on the regression coefficients induces sparsity, dramatically reducing the size of the regression problem. Our system averages over potential contributions from a very large set of models and gives easily digested reports of which coefficients are likely to be important. We illustrate with applications to initial claims for unemployment benefits and to retail sales. Although our exposition focuses on using search engine data to forecast economic time series, the underlying statistical methods can be applied to more general short term forecasting with large numbers of contemporaneous predictors.","type":"string"},"datatype":"string"},"type":"statement","id":"Q90324$0E7799DF-C2E3-4A71-9901-5B5A2AD83282","rank":"normal"}],"P226":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P226","hash":"5ff603baad6e626164b90c8b8447bf06d7701153","datavalue":{"value":"62P20","type":"string"},"datatype":"external-id"},"type":"statement","id":"Q90324$0FC93FE0-EF68-49B8-8F18-C4365FE1B533","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P226","hash":"da09a36b3cd55a8c4008bfc1571e995d63777860","datavalue":{"value":"62M20","type":"string"},"datatype":"external-id"},"type":"statement","id":"Q90324$419CA025-8296-48B3-9263-0A6AE09452C4","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P226","hash":"325e035d1812352c3a83010cdc35176514b19a00","datavalue":{"value":"91B84","type":"string"},"datatype":"external-id"},"type":"statement","id":"Q90324$C43D00B4-831A-486A-9C9C-DF2A91F0703E","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P226","hash":"b23b4581d19061667c697da14a890aa055e6f323","datavalue":{"value":"65C40","type":"string"},"datatype":"external-id"},"type":"statement","id":"Q90324$141697DB-3647-4B0C-9B5C-F5AF9A8C852C","rank":"normal"}],"P1451":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1451","hash":"093fa998d18373b69ad66fafead9f60257dc7ea4","datavalue":{"value":"6379195","type":"string"},"datatype":"external-id"},"type":"statement","id":"Q90324$46EDC099-6AE7-4DE6-80D0-E93FCD822EC5","rank":"normal"}],"P1450":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1450","hash":"c36734b870d0f3f61f457da25de2f3e26eab6238","datavalue":{"value":"Bayesian model averaging","type":"string"},"datatype":"string"},"type":"statement","id":"Q90324$E2B4A48B-1FC7-4E3D-B8BE-5E2B7502BD83","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1450","hash":"fde99b72825b3f1c28072487bd409ac0b65d27e0","datavalue":{"value":"Bayesian structural time series models","type":"string"},"datatype":"string"},"type":"statement","id":"Q90324$5737DB35-83EA-4E47-A37D-98A380CC06BA","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1450","hash":"a7e8eecdc1c377e64f81485d4fbc99e14c2691aa","datavalue":{"value":"Markov chain Monte Carlo","type":"string"},"datatype":"string"},"type":"statement","id":"Q90324$8DE526E0-3BD8-4DAA-B940-1A01FD9C073F","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1450","hash":"734f20eb563c442b8af20673d235ac436ffcffc8","datavalue":{"value":"economic time series","type":"string"},"datatype":"string"},"type":"statement","id":"Q90324$9AF3ECE9-00F1-4A8A-9692-3CF1DEC88956","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1450","hash":"e0afe30fcd4cd25e8e8273c02ad48a97b4a0e001","datavalue":{"value":"machine learning","type":"string"},"datatype":"string"},"type":"statement","id":"Q90324$82066093-96D8-4715-BEAA-FF4F2B3450E7","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1450","hash":"1b995fd1a0a2f64bc47d13a0e5ca6a61bb55f528","datavalue":{"value":"predicting the present","type":"string"},"datatype":"string"},"type":"statement","id":"Q90324$DF3504F5-9657-4057-9CB3-A36CD0698693","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1450","hash":"55ae4550d1e050b5787078706f570b28f1ffcc0c","datavalue":{"value":"spike and slab priors","type":"string"},"datatype":"string"},"type":"statement","id":"Q90324$06FC7B4D-AF17-4532-AAFA-15D675AABAA9","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1450","hash":"58cfc6c0ae6bb21a121ff131b2370623f799a9fd","datavalue":{"value":"state space models","type":"string"},"datatype":"string"},"type":"statement","id":"Q90324$1BC7EBD4-A491-4F38-A9B8-0F3887D19858","rank":"normal"}],"P12":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P12","hash":"efd5f882bed545256c8567bde66019d1e0891871","datavalue":{"value":"Q114106132","type":"string"},"datatype":"external-id"},"type":"statement","id":"Q90324$E7288BE1-2786-4DC5-9516-5B829273E085","rank":"normal"}],"P1460":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1460","hash":"57f7fea50d2ce1b39b695c4a1313582eed405e38","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":5976449,"id":"Q5976449"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","id":"Q90324$9DC6B7DF-8774-46BD-A459-97426C76C2D3","rank":"normal"}],"P27":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P27","hash":"539771ea494bd3f01966d3e6c4b7d4b739a1ca6c","datavalue":{"value":"10.1504/IJMMNO.2014.059942","type":"string"},"datatype":"external-id"},"type":"statement","id":"Q90324$AACEDBD1-F3CD-40AD-ADE1-AB5C6B4A1B8A","rank":"normal"}],"P1643":[{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1643","hash":"2f8684c38623d69d5722818bad3f6f4ff3546924","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":1095558,"id":"Q1095558"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","qualifiers":{"P1659":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1659","hash":"58d6432ed7ad03b17cbe798f41f2afc3eb17bf8e","datavalue":{"value":{"amount":"+0.92649186","unit":"1"},"type":"quantity"},"datatype":"quantity"}],"P1660":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1660","hash":"ac3c626774dcd0d16f89557f66586245841a01db","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":6767936,"id":"Q6767936"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"}]},"qualifiers-order":["P1659","P1660"],"id":"Q90324$9C96C65A-D583-4CED-994C-5A0BDF80E841","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1643","hash":"4846991fbb7212501cb807fb915164b2625f240f","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":1899241,"id":"Q1899241"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","qualifiers":{"P1659":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1659","hash":"df2d19e30e0d30080acdff853f0b05a1ab6a10ae","datavalue":{"value":{"amount":"+0.91237885","unit":"1"},"type":"quantity"},"datatype":"quantity"}],"P1660":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1660","hash":"ac3c626774dcd0d16f89557f66586245841a01db","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":6767936,"id":"Q6767936"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"}]},"qualifiers-order":["P1659","P1660"],"id":"Q90324$4A67A125-2053-4A1B-B006-5A189C7425CA","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1643","hash":"5053b64a752bc4cd848d426acccb1e0bb8b8ee2c","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":1740347,"id":"Q1740347"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","qualifiers":{"P1659":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1659","hash":"de4cf47e31227efc85f785bfb5a009f5fe93a19a","datavalue":{"value":{"amount":"+0.90857565","unit":"1"},"type":"quantity"},"datatype":"quantity"}],"P1660":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1660","hash":"ac3c626774dcd0d16f89557f66586245841a01db","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":6767936,"id":"Q6767936"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"}]},"qualifiers-order":["P1659","P1660"],"id":"Q90324$6D0EEC2B-874B-44D2-8148-AC5AB851FA88","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1643","hash":"29fcdaf6cab70e6e95ad88d218a275b1a438d7d4","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":2885587,"id":"Q2885587"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","qualifiers":{"P1659":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1659","hash":"83b2512e4d22e7b35e05b21731c5014de749dc33","datavalue":{"value":{"amount":"+0.8999874","unit":"1"},"type":"quantity"},"datatype":"quantity"}],"P1660":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1660","hash":"ac3c626774dcd0d16f89557f66586245841a01db","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":6767936,"id":"Q6767936"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"}]},"qualifiers-order":["P1659","P1660"],"id":"Q90324$A6718695-848E-4911-99C0-7AC09742EC65","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1643","hash":"73d57ab456ebad0650bcfdc677343e85d5661ac1","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":2304234,"id":"Q2304234"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","qualifiers":{"P1659":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1659","hash":"f35f9baf003f7ffcecfa3391be56f1bca6ae0b83","datavalue":{"value":{"amount":"+0.89950997","unit":"1"},"type":"quantity"},"datatype":"quantity"}],"P1660":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1660","hash":"ac3c626774dcd0d16f89557f66586245841a01db","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":6767936,"id":"Q6767936"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"}]},"qualifiers-order":["P1659","P1660"],"id":"Q90324$79EB7576-DEFB-42A2-98B7-F0B2D8D647E6","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1643","hash":"c7d23e40c61960ec2e881a3683a6ed244fd5695d","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":3842908,"id":"Q3842908"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","qualifiers":{"P1659":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1659","hash":"52dd7270304650a615b88230ce525c42d1d1304c","datavalue":{"value":{"amount":"+0.8993388","unit":"1"},"type":"quantity"},"datatype":"quantity"}],"P1660":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1660","hash":"ac3c626774dcd0d16f89557f66586245841a01db","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":6767936,"id":"Q6767936"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"}]},"qualifiers-order":["P1659","P1660"],"id":"Q90324$2E2DBEE9-3D9D-4DB6-A0C7-6EF8E257FD22","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1643","hash":"7c75bd949be83b36927c1dff87c924884c450653","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":469553,"id":"Q469553"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","qualifiers":{"P1659":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1659","hash":"e0b0f220e98e90059ab81c018a5128a17a181a85","datavalue":{"value":{"amount":"+0.89758897","unit":"1"},"type":"quantity"},"datatype":"quantity"}],"P1660":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1660","hash":"ac3c626774dcd0d16f89557f66586245841a01db","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":6767936,"id":"Q6767936"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"}]},"qualifiers-order":["P1659","P1660"],"id":"Q90324$C256B8BB-9CB1-42C4-AE69-DFEEE90E6B6A","rank":"normal"},{"mainsnak":{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1643","hash":"0358c1e1a3418efe5d99d5f0d0034e738677dfd7","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":3996573,"id":"Q3996573"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"},"type":"statement","qualifiers":{"P1659":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1659","hash":"3c686fd133a586ced05a1e2a8095c9882eb06576","datavalue":{"value":{"amount":"+0.8920289","unit":"1"},"type":"quantity"},"datatype":"quantity"}],"P1660":[{"snaktype":"value","property":"P1660","hash":"ac3c626774dcd0d16f89557f66586245841a01db","datavalue":{"value":{"entity-type":"item","numeric-id":6767936,"id":"Q6767936"},"type":"wikibase-entityid"},"datatype":"wikibase-item"}]},"qualifiers-order":["P1659","P1660"],"id":"Q90324$AD514F30-7749-4B71-8083-41BF1B08F680","rank":"normal"}]},"sitelinks":{"mardi":{"site":"mardi","title":"Predicting the present with Bayesian structural time series","badges":[],"url":"https://portal.mardi4nfdi.de/wiki/Predicting_the_present_with_Bayesian_structural_time_series"}}}}}