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A special model is considered, where the claim development factors \\(C_{i,j}\\) are modelled as  \\[  C_{i,j} = C_{i,j-1} (\\exp\\{\\xi_{i,j}\\} + 1)\\,. \\]  Here \\(C_{i,j}\\) are the aggregate payments for claims with occurrence year \\(i\\) paid until year \\(i+j\\). Given the parameters \\(\\Theta = (\\theta_0, \\theta_1, \\ldots, \\theta_J)\\) for the occurrence years \\(0,1,\\ldots,J\\), it is assumed that \\((\\xi_{i,j})\\) are independent normally distributed. The variances are fixed, but the mean values \\(\\theta_i\\) are normally distributed. For a fixed \\(k\\), in the model \\(M^{(k)}\\) the parameters \\(\\theta_j: 0 \\leq j \\leq k\\) are independent, but \\(\\theta_j = \\alpha - j \\beta\\) for \\(j > k\\), where \\(\\alpha,\\beta\\) are independent normal variables.  For the model \\(M^{(k)}\\), Bayesian statistics can be done to predict the necessary reserves. 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