Multiple stable recurrent outbreaks and predictability in seasonally forced nonlinear epidemic models (Q802490): Difference between revisions
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Latest revision as of 08:59, 30 July 2024
scientific article
| Language | Label | Description | Also known as |
|---|---|---|---|
| English | Multiple stable recurrent outbreaks and predictability in seasonally forced nonlinear epidemic models |
scientific article |
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Multiple stable recurrent outbreaks and predictability in seasonally forced nonlinear epidemic models (English)
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1985
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A seasonally forced nonlinear SEIR epidemic model is used to simulate small and large amplitude periodic outbreaks. The model is shown to exhibit bistable behavior for a fixed set of parameters. Basins of attraction for each recurrent outbreak are computed, and it is shown that the basins of two coexisting stable outbreaks are intertwined in a complicated manner. The effect of such a basin structure is shown to result in an obstruction in predicting asymptotically the type of outbreak given an uncertainty in the initial population of susceptibles and infectives.
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forced nonlinear differential equations
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measles
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predictability
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seasonally forced nonlinear SEIR epidemic model
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periodic outbreaks
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bistable behavior
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Basins of attraction
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