How often does the best team win? A unified approach to understanding randomness in North American sport

DOI10.1214/18-AOAS1165zbMath1412.62216arXiv1701.05976OpenAlexW2963452116WikidataQ128951563 ScholiaQ128951563MaRDI QIDQ1728667

Michael J. Lopez, Benjamin S. Baumer, Gregory J. Matthews

Publication date: 25 February 2019

Published in: The Annals of Applied Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1701.05976

zbMATH Keywords

MCMCBayesian modelingsports analyticscompetitive balance

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Time series, auto-correlation, regression, etc. in statistics (GARCH) (62M10) Applications of statistics (62P99)

Related Items (8)

The causal effect of a timeout at stopping an opposing run in the NBA ⋮ Estimating the change in soccer's home advantage during the covid-19 pandemic using bivariate Poisson regression ⋮ Does luck play a role in the determination of the rank positions in football leagues? A study of Europe's `big five' ⋮ Phylourny: efficiently calculating elimination tournament win probabilities via phylogenetic methods ⋮ How often does the best team win? A unified approach to understanding randomness in North American sport ⋮ Predicting the scoring time in hockey ⋮ A diagnostic for bias in linear mixed model estimators induced by dependence between the random effects and the corresponding model matrix ⋮ Big ideas in sports analytics and statistical tools for their investigation

Uses Software

• R
• BayesDA

Cites Work

• Unnamed Item
• Unnamed Item
• Extended ordered paired comparison models with application to football data from German Bundesliga
• How often does the best team win? A unified approach to understanding randomness in North American sport
• Following a Moving Target—Monte Carlo Inference for Dynamic Bayesian Models
• Sequential Monte Carlo Samplers
• A State-Space Model for National Football League Scores
• Dynamic Stochastic Models for Time-Dependent Ordered Paired Comparison Systems
• Dynamic paired comparison models with stochastic variances
• Bayesian Measures of Model Complexity and Fit
• Prior distributions for variance parameters in hierarchical models (Comment on article by Browne and Draper)

This page was built for publication: How often does the best team win? A unified approach to understanding randomness in North American sport