A class of general stochastic compartmental systems (Q1091335)

The paper deals with a general n-compartmental system as a stochastic semi-Markov process; this approach is proposed as a suitable tool to describe the evolution of a chronic disease which, in the example considered by the authors, presents three different transition states: preclinical, clinical, and desease free; moreover an absorbent state: death. Clinical and desease free states are, in this paper, reversible; moreover, to each state an arbitrary RDT is associated, also depending on the possible state of the system in the next transition. Systems either with non homogeneous Poisson-inputs or with an instantaneous known input in each compartment, are analyzed. Forward and backward recurrence time distribution, occupation probabilities, expected time spent in each compartment are obtained; finally, the number of particles present in each compartment is calculated.