A Bayesian hierarchical model for criminal investigations

DOI10.1214/19-BA1192MaRDI QIDQ2057365zbMATH OpenFDO

Authors F. O. Bunnin, Jim Q. Smith

Publication date 6 December 2021

Published in Bayesian Analysis (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.01894, https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.ba/1576832521

zbMATH Keywords

chain event graphsdecision support systemshierarchical modelsMarkov processesMarkov switching modelsprobabilistic graphical models

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Bayesian inference (62F15) Probabilistic graphical models (62H22) Markov processes: hypothesis testing (62M02) Applications of statistics to social sciences (62P25)

Abstract: Potential violent criminals will often need to go through a sequence of preparatory steps before they can execute their plans. During this escalation process police have the opportunity to evaluate the threat posed by such people through what they know, observe and learn from intelligence reports about their activities. In this paper we customise a three-level Bayesian hierarchical model to describe this process. This is able to propagate both routine and unexpected evidence in real time. We discuss how to set up such a model so that it calibrates to domain expert judgments. The model illustrations include a hypothetical example based on a potential vehicle based terrorist attack.

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Cites work

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Cited in

(5)

• A Bayesian hierarchical model for evaluating forensic footwear evidence
• Bayesian networks for sex-related homicides: structure learning and prediction
• Scalable model selection for staged trees: mean-posterior clustering and binary trees
• A Bayesian decision support system for counteracting activities of terrorist groups
• Bayesian graphs of intelligent causation

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