A fast particle-based approach for calibrating a 3-D model of the Antarctic ice sheet
From MaRDI portal
Abstract: We consider the scientifically challenging and policy-relevant task of understanding the past and projecting the future dynamics of the Antarctic ice sheet. The Antarctic ice sheet has shown a highly nonlinear threshold response to past climate forcings. Triggering such a threshold response through anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions would drive drastic and potentially fast sea level rise with important implications for coastal flood risks. Previous studies have combined information from ice sheet models and observations to calibrate model parameters. These studies have broken important new ground but have either adopted simple ice sheet models or have limited the number of parameters to allow for the use of more complex models. These limitations are largely due to the computational challenges posed by calibration as models become more computationally intensive or when the number of parameters increases. Here we propose a method to alleviate this problem: a fast sequential Monte Carlo method that takes advantage of the massive parallelization afforded by modern high performance computing systems. We use simulated examples to demonstrate how our sample-based approach provides accurate approximations to the posterior distributions of the calibrated parameters. The drastic reduction in computational times enables us to provide new insights into important scientific questions, for example, the impact of Pliocene era data and prior parameter information on sea level projections. These studies would be computationally prohibitive with other computational approaches for calibration such as Markov chain Monte Carlo or emulation-based methods. We also find considerable differences in the distributions of sea level projections when we account for a larger number of uncertain parameters.
Recommendations
- Ice model calibration using semicontinuous spatial data
- Improving ice sheet model calibration using paleoclimate and modern data
- Scalable and efficient algorithms for the propagation of uncertainty from data through inference to prediction for large-scale problems, with application to flow of the antarctic ice sheet
- A computational framework for infinite-dimensional Bayesian inverse problems. II: stochastic Newton MCMC with application to ice sheet flow inverse problems
- Fast dimension-reduced climate model calibration and the effect of data aggregation
Cites work
- A Comparison of Three Methods for Selecting Values of Input Variables in the Analysis of Output from a Computer Code
- A computational framework for infinite-dimensional Bayesian inverse problems. II: stochastic Newton MCMC with application to ice sheet flow inverse problems
- A construction method for orthogonal Latin hypercube designs
- A sequential particle filter method for static models
- Bayesian calibration of computer models. (With discussion)
- Computer Model Calibration Using High-Dimensional Output
- Computer model validation with functional output
- Design and analysis of computer experiments. With comments and a rejoinder by the authors
- Dimension Reduction for Gaussian Process Emulation: An Application to the Influence of Bathymetry on Tsunami Heights
- Dissipative dynamical systems. I: General theory
- Ensemble samplers with affine invariance
- Fast dimension-reduced climate model calibration and the effect of data aggregation
- Fixed-Width Output Analysis for Markov Chain Monte Carlo
- Following a moving target -- Monte Carlo inference for dynamic Bayesian models
- scientific article; zbMATH DE number 1666084 (Why is no real title available?)
- scientific article; zbMATH DE number 1666093 (Why is no real title available?)
- scientific article; zbMATH DE number 3103176 (Why is no real title available?)
- Importance sampling: intrinsic dimension and computational cost
- Improving ice sheet model calibration using paleoclimate and modern data
- Inference for Lévy-driven stochastic volatility models via adaptive sequential Monte Carlo
- Inferring climate system properties using a computer model
- Iterative importance sampling algorithms for parameter estimation
- Large Sample Properties of Simulations Using Latin Hypercube Sampling
- Learning about physical parameters: the importance of model discrepancy
- Modularization in Bayesian analysis, with emphasis on analysis of computer models
- Nonasymptotic analysis of adaptive and annealed Feynman-Kac particle models
- On particle methods for parameter estimation in state-space models
- On the convergence of adaptive sequential Monte Carlo methods
- On the role of interaction in sequential Monte Carlo algorithms
- Parallelizing sequential graph computations
- Parameter estimation by implicit sampling
- Particle Filtering for Stochastic Navier--Stokes Signal Observed with Linear Additive Noise
- Real-Parameter Evolutionary Monte Carlo With Applications to Bayesian Mixture Models
- Reducing communication costs for sparse matrix multiplication within algebraic multigrid
- Scalable and efficient algorithms for the propagation of uncertainty from data through inference to prediction for large-scale problems, with application to flow of the antarctic ice sheet
- Sequential Monte Carlo Methods for Dynamic Systems
- Sequential Monte Carlo methods for high-dimensional inverse problems: a case study for the Navier-Stokes equations
- Sequential Monte Carlo on large binary sampling spaces
- Sequential Monte Carlo Samplers
- Solution of nonlinear Stokes equations discretized by high-order finite elements on nonconforming and anisotropic meshes, with application to ice sheet dynamics
- The Multiple-Try Method and Local Optimization in Metropolis Sampling
Cited in
(9)- Ice model calibration using semicontinuous spatial data
- Quantifying spatio-temporal boundary condition uncertainty for the North American deglaciation
- A multifidelity quantile-based approach for confidence sets of random excursion sets with application to ice-sheet dynamics
- Improving ice sheet model calibration using paleoclimate and modern data
- A model calibration procedure for count response
- A review on computer model calibration
- Flood hazard model calibration using multiresolution model output
- Bayesian Model Calibration and Sensitivity Analysis for Oscillating Biological Experiments
- Scalable and efficient algorithms for the propagation of uncertainty from data through inference to prediction for large-scale problems, with application to flow of the antarctic ice sheet
This page was built for publication: A fast particle-based approach for calibrating a 3-D model of the Antarctic ice sheet
Report a bug (only for logged in users!)Click here to report a bug for this page (MaRDI item Q2194450)
