A stochastic evolutionary model for capturing human dynamics

DOI10.1088/1742-5468/2015/08/P08015MaRDI QIDQ3302377zbMATH OpenOpenAlexWikidataFDO

Authors T. I. Fenner, M. Levene, George Loizou

Publication date 11 August 2020

Published in Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1502.07558

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Applications of renewal theory (reliability, demand theory, etc.) (60K10) Estimation in survival analysis and censored data (62N02) Applications of statistics to economics (62P20) Models of societies, social and urban evolution (91D10) Mathematical sociology (including anthropology) (91D99)

Abstract: The recent interest in human dynamics has led researchers to investigate the stochastic processes that explain human behaviour in various contexts. Here we propose a generative model to capture the dynamics of survival analysis, traditionally employed in clinical trials and reliability analysis in engineering. We derive a general solution for the model in the form of a product, and then a continuous approximation to the solution via the renewal equation describing age-structured population dynamics. This enables us to model a wide range of survival distributions, according to the choice of the mortality distribution. We provide empirical evidence for the validity of the model from a longitudinal data set of popular search engine queries over 114 months, showing that the survival function of these queries is closely matched by the solution for our model with power-law mortality.

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Cited in

(3)

• A stochastic dynamical social model involving a human happiness index
• A stochastic evolutionary model for survival dynamics
• For a dynamical approach to human computation

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