A surrogate accelerated multicanonical Monte Carlo method for uncertainty quantification
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Abstract: In this work we consider a class of uncertainty quantification problems where the system performance or reliability is characterized by a scalar parameter . The performance parameter is random due to the presence of various sources of uncertainty in the system, and our goal is to estimate the probability density function (PDF) of . We propose to use the multicanonical Monte Carlo (MMC) method, a special type of adaptive importance sampling algorithm, to compute the PDF of interest. Moreover, we develop an adaptive algorithm to construct local Gaussian process surrogates to further accelerate the MMC iterations. With numerical examples we demonstrate that the proposed method can achieve several orders of magnitudes of speedup over the standard Monte Carlo method.
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Cites work
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- scientific article; zbMATH DE number 1560246 (Why is no real title available?)
- scientific article; zbMATH DE number 2121582 (Why is no real title available?)
- Multicanonical MCMC for sampling rare events: an illustrative review
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- Sequential Monte Carlo for rare event estimation
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