An upper bound on the expected completion time of PERT networks
The problem of determining an upper bound on the expected project completion time, described by the PERT network, is considered. It is assumed that activity durations are independent random variables with given means. The exact forms of probability distributions do not have to be known; however, their cumulative distribution functions are expected to belong to the so-called NBUE class. Very simple algorithms for deriving this bound are presented. The computations can even be performed manually for more involved networks. Our approach producing a pessimistic evaluation of the expected value of the project duration, extends considerably the information obtained through the use of the classical PERT that always underestimates this value. The results are illustrated by a simple example, and errors of approximations are discussed.
- scientific article; zbMATH DE number 3916004
- Bounding the Project Completion Time Distribution in PERT Networks
- Two-point approximations for activity times in PERT networks
- Computing bounds on project duration distributions for stochastic PERT networks
- Bounding the distribution of project duration in PERT networks
- A moment method for solving stochastic time problems in network planning
- A Statistical Theory for PERT Critical Path Analysis
- Application of a technique for research and development program evaluation
- Bounding Distributions for a Stochastic Acyclic Network
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- Inequalities for the Completion Times of Stochastic PERT Networks
- Numerical Operators for Statistical PERT Critical Path Analysis
- On the Expected Duration of PERT Type Networks
- The Completion Time of PERT Networks
- The Greatest of a Finite Set of Random Variables
- Bounding the expected time-cost curve for a stochastic PERT network from below
- A classified bibliography of recent research relating to project risk management
- Bounding the distribution of project duration in PERT networks
- Critical path in an activity network with time constraints
- Estimating the mean completion time of PERT networks with exponentially distributed durations of activities
- Finding the critical path in an activity network with time-switch constraints
- A new approach to determine the critical path in stochastic activity network
- A new structural mechanism for reducibility of stochastic PERT networks
- Game-theoretic modeling of the project management contract
- Risk taking in stochastic PERT networks
- Adjustment of the moments of the project completion times when activity times are exponentially distributed
- scientific article; zbMATH DE number 1808553 (Why is no real title available?)
- A note on minimum-dummy-activities PERT networks
- Some remarks on the expected delay of project duration in a PERT network
- Efficient sensitivity analysis of PERT network performance measures to significant changes in activity time parameters
- Note sur les problèmes d'ordonnancement PERT aléatoires
- scientific article; zbMATH DE number 3916004 (Why is no real title available?)
- Two-point approximations for activity times in PERT networks
- Bounding the Project Completion Time Distribution in PERT Networks
- scientific article; zbMATH DE number 3959110 (Why is no real title available?)
- scientific article; zbMATH DE number 3976755 (Why is no real title available?)
- Approximating the Criticality Indices of the Activities in PERT Networks
- Bounds for the expectation of linear combinations of order statistics with application to pert networks
- Solution of interval PERT/CPM network problems by a simplified tabular method
- Evaluating the project completion time when activity networks follow beta distribution
- Erlang distributed activity times in stochastic activity networks.
- A Laplace transform method for order statistics from nonidentical random variables and its application in phase-type distribution
- Chance-constrained programming in activity networks: A critical evaluation
- The computational complexity of the criticality problems in a network with interval activity times
- Evaluating project completion times when activity times are Weibull distributed
- Stochastic activity networks with truncated exponential activity times
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