Analysis of a two-layer energy balance model: long time behaviour and greenhouse effect

DOI10.1063/5.0136673MaRDI QIDQ6418732zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Piermarco Cannarsa, Valerio Lucarini, Patrick Martinez, Cristina Urbani, Judith Vancostenoble

Publication date 28 November 2022

Full work available at URL https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0136673

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Dynamical systems in fluid mechanics, oceanography and meteorology (37N10) Climate science and climate modeling (86A08)

Abstract: We study a two-layer energy balance model, that allows for vertical exchanges between a surface layer and the atmosphere. The evolution equations of the surface temperature and the atmospheric temperature are coupled by the emission of infrared radiation by one level, that emission being captured by the other layer, and the effect of all non radiative vertical exchanges of energy. Therefore, an essential parameter is the absorptivity of the atmosphere, denoted $epsilo{n}_a$. The value of $epsilo{n}_a$ depends critically on greenhouse gases: increasing concentrations of $C{O}_2$ and $C{H}_4$ lead to a more opaque atmosphere with higher values of $epsilo{n}_a$. First we prove that global existence of solutions of the system holds if and only if $epsilo{n}_{a}in(0,2)$, and blow up in finite time occurs if $epsilo{n}_a>2$. (Note that the physical range of values for $epsilo{n}_a$ is $(0,1]$.) Next, we explain the long time dynamics for $epsilo{n}_{a}in(0,2)$, and we prove that all solutions converge to some equilibrium point. Finally, motivated by the physical context, we study the dependence of the equilibrium points with respect to the involved parameters, and we prove in particular that the surface temperature grows as $epsilo{n}_a$ grows. This is the key mathematical manifestation of the greenhouse effect.

Cited in

(6)

• Null-controllability and Carleman estimates for non-autonomous degenerate PDEs: a climatological application
• A non-autonomous framework for climate change and extreme weather events increase in a stochastic energy balance model
• Dynamic boundary conditions with noise for an energy balance model coupled to geophysical flows
• Stochastic diffusive energy balance climate model with a multiplicative noise modeling the solar variability
• Discontinuous bifurcation in emissivity of monotone solutions to a Budyko-type quasilinear climate equation
• Time-periodic solutions to an energy balance model coupled with an active fluid under arbitrarily large forces

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