Bayesian Forecasting for Complex Systems Using Computer Simulators
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- On constraining projections of future climate using observations and simulations from multiple climate models
- Assessing first-order emulator inference for physical parameters in nonlinear mechanistic models
- Posterior belief assessment: extracting meaningful subjective judgements from Bayesian analyses with complex statistical models
- Bayes Linear Calibrated Prediction for Complex Systems
- Parameter estimation for computationally intensive nonlinear regression with an application to climate modeling
- Reified Bayesian modelling and inference for physical systems
- Uncertainty quantification for chaotic computational fluid dynamics
- Mixtures of experts for understanding model discrepancy in dynamic computer models
- Gaussian process emulators for spatial individual-level models of infectious disease
- Hierarchical sparse observation models and informative prior for Bayesian inference of spatially varying parameters
- Semi-parametric adjustment to computer models
- A search algorithm for calculating validated reliability bounds
- Model-based structural health monitoring of naval ship hulls
- Aggregating predictions from experts: a review of statistical methods, experiments, and applications
- A review on computer model calibration
- Verifying reification with application to a rainfall-runoff computer simulator
- Exploratory ensemble designs for environmental models using k‐extended Latin Hypercubes
- Bayes linear analysis for ordinary differential equations
- Estimating predictability of depinning dynamics by machine learning
- Calibrating non-identifiable high-dimensional simulation models: a framework via eligibility set
- Quantifying spatio-temporal boundary condition uncertainty for the North American deglaciation
- Foundations for temporal reasoning using lower previsions without a possibility space
- Bayesian model -- data synthesis with an application to global glacio-isostatic adjustment
- Data fusion with Gaussian processes for estimation of environmental hazard events
- Non-parametric sampling approximation via Voronoi tessellations
- Cost (or Price) Forecasting in the Face of Technological Advance
- Mechanism-based emulation of dynamic simulation models: concept and application in hydrology
- Uncertainty quantification using the nearest neighbor Gaussian process
- Computer model validation with functional output
- Screening the Discrepancy Function of a Computer Model
- Adaptive numerical designs for the calibration of computer codes
- A multi-resolution, non-parametric, Bayesian framework for identification of spatially-varying model parameters
- Diagnostics-driven nonstationary emulators using kernel mixtures
- Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis of Complex Models: A Bayesian Approach
- A comparison of statistical emulation methodologies for multi‐wave calibration of environmental models
- Computer experiments: a review
- Effective model calibration via sensible variable identification and adjustment with application to composite fuselage simulation
- Efficient models for correlated data via convolutions of intrinsic processes
- Bayesian emulation of grey-box multimodel ensembles exploiting known interior structure
- Bayes linear analysis for complex physical systems modeled by computer simulators
- Bayesian calibration of hydrocarbon reservoir models using an approximate reservoir simulator in the prior specification
- Considering discrepancy when calibrating a mechanistic electrophysiology model
- Multiobjective optimization using Gaussian process emulators via stepwise uncertainty reduction
- Second-Order Exchangeability Analysis for Multimodel Ensembles
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