Bayesian MAP model selection of chain event graphs

DOI10.1016/J.JMVA.2011.03.008MaRDI QIDQ548650zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Guy Freeman, Jim Q. Smith

Publication date 29 June 2011

Published in Journal of Multivariate Analysis (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/0904.0977

zbMATH Keywords

Dirichlet distributionBayesian model selection

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Bayesian inference (62F15) Applications of graph theory (05C90) Theory of languages and software systems (knowledge-based systems, expert systems, etc.) for artificial intelligence (68T35)

Abstract: The class of chain event graph models is a generalisation of the class of discrete Bayesian networks, retaining most of the structural advantages of the Bayesian network for model interrogation, propagation and learning, while more naturally encoding asymmetric state spaces and the order in which events happen. In this paper we demonstrate how with complete sampling, conjugate closed form model selection based on product Dirichlet priors is possible, and prove that suitable homogeneity assumptions characterise the product Dirichlet prior on this class of models. We demonstrate our techniques using two educational examples.

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Cited in

(19)

• Refining a Bayesian network using a chain event graph
• Chain event graphs
• A new family of non-local priors for chain event graph model selection
• Context-specific graphical models for discrete longitudinal data
• A modeling method and application of emergent event chain based on Bayesian network
• Coherent combination of probabilistic outputs for group decision making: an algebraic approach
• Chain graph models to elicit the structure of a Bayesian network
• Causal analysis with chain event graphs
• Causal discovery through MAP selection of stratified chain event graphs
• The curved exponential family of a staged tree
• Discovery of statistical equivalence classes using computer algebra
• Distributional Kalman filters for Bayesian forecasting and closed form recurrences
• Sensitivity analysis beyond linearity
• The dynamic chain event graph
• Chain event graphs for informed missingness
• Beyond conjugacy for chain event graph model selection
• The role of local partial independence in learning of Bayesian networks
• Towards a Bayesian Analysis of Migration Pathways Using Chain Event Graphs of Agent Based Models
• Equivalence classes of staged trees

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