Bayesian benchmark dose analysis

DOI10.1002/ENV.2339MaRDI QIDQ6139156zbMATH OpenOpenAlexWikidataFDO

Authors Q. Fang, W. W. Piegorsch

Publication date 18 December 2023

Published in Environmetrics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1406.2725

zbMATH Keywords

adaptive metropolis algorithmBayesian modelingbenchmark analysisdose-response analysisprior elicitationquantitative risk assessment

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Applications of statistics to environmental and related topics (62P12)

Abstract: An important objective in environmental risk assessment is estimation of minimum exposure levels, called Benchmark Doses (BMDs) that induce a pre-specified Benchmark Response (BMR) in a target population. Established inferential approaches for BMD analysis typically involve one-sided, frequentist confidence limits, leading in practice to what are called Benchmark Dose Lower Limits (BMDLs). Appeal to Bayesian modeling and credible limits for building BMDLs is far less developed, however. Indeed, for the few existing forms of Bayesian BMDs, informative prior information is seldom incorporated. We develop reparameterized quantal-response models that explicitly describe the BMD as a target parameter. Our goal is to obtain an improved estimation and calculation archetype for the BMD and for the BMDL, by employing quantifiable prior belief to represent parameter uncertainty in the statistical model. Implementation is facilitated via a Monte Carlo-based adaptive Metropolis (AM) algorithm to approximate the posterior distribution. An example from environmental carcinogenicity testing illustrates the calculations.

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Cited in

(5)

• BMA‐Mod: A Bayesian model averaging strategy for determining dose‐response relationships in the presence of model uncertainty
• An extended and unified modeling framework for benchmark dose estimation for both continuous and binary data
• Bayesian semiparametric mixed effects models for meta-analysis of the literature data: an application to cadmium toxicity studies
• Bayesian benchmark dose risk assessment with mixed-factor quantal data
• Application of Bayesian inference to characterize risks associated with low doses of low-LET radiation

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