Bootstrapping multiple systems estimates to account for model selection

DOI10.1007/S11222-023-10346-9MaRDI QIDQ6190665zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Bernhard W. Silverman, Lax Chan

Publication date 6 February 2024

Published in Statistics and Computing (Search for Journal in Brave)

Copyright license Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.17856

zbMATH Keywords

bias-corrected bootstrapcomputational economyhuman traffickinginformation criterion/criteriamultiple systems estimation

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Computational methods for problems pertaining to statistics (62-08)

Abstract: Multiple systems estimation is a standard approach to quantifying hidden populations where data sources are based on lists of known cases. A typical modelling approach is to fit a Poisson loglinear model to the numbers of cases observed in each possible combination of the lists. It is necessary to decide which interaction parameters to include in the model, and information criterion approaches are often used for model selection. Difficulties in the context of multiple systems estimation may arise due to sparse or nil counts based on the intersection of lists, and care must be taken when information criterion approaches are used for model selection due to issues relating to the existence of estimates and identifiability of the model. Confidence intervals are often reported conditional on the model selected, providing an over-optimistic impression of the accuracy of the estimation. A bootstrap approach is a natural way to account for the model selection procedure. However, because the model selection step has to be carried out for every bootstrap replication, there may be a high or even prohibitive computational burden. We explore the merit of modifying the model selection procedure in the bootstrap to look only among a subset of models, chosen on the basis of their information criterion score on the original data. This provides large computational gains with little apparent effect on inference. Another model selection approach considered and investigated is a downhill search approach among models, possibly with multiple starting points.

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Cites work

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Cited in

(3)

• A bootstrap approach to account for model selection in multiple systems estimation
• Identifying one-inflation in regression models for ratio estimators in single-source capture-recapture problems
• The use of multiple systems estimation to estimate the number of unattributed paintings by Modigliani

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