Bounds for the expected value of one-step processes

DOI10.4310/CMS.2016.V14.N7.A6MaRDI QIDQ345980zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Benjamin Armbruster, Ádám Besenyei, Péter L. Simon

Publication date 5 December 2016

Published in Communications in Mathematical Sciences (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1505.00898

zbMATH Keywords

birth-death processesmean-field modelone-step processesordinary differential equationSIS epidemic processvoter model

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Growth and boundedness of solutions to ordinary differential equations (34C11) Branching processes (Galton-Watson, birth-and-death, etc.) (60J80) Applications of branching processes (60J85) Epidemiology (92D30)

Abstract: Mean-field models are often used to approximate Markov processes with large state-spaces. One-step processes, also known as birth-death processes, are an important class of such processes and are processes with state space $0,1,ldots,N$ and where each transition is of size one. We derive explicit bounds on the expected value of such a process, bracketing it between the mean-field model and another simple ODE. Our bounds require that the Markov transition rates are density dependent polynomials that satisfy a sign condition. We illustrate the tightness of our bounds on the SIS epidemic process and the voter model.

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• On bounding exact models of epidemic spread on networks

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