COSMOLOGICAL MODEL SELECTION: STATISTICS AND PHYSICS
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Abstract: Interpretation of cosmological data to determine the number and values of parameters describing the universe must not rely solely on statistics but involve physical insight. When statistical techniques such as "model selection" or "integrated survey optimization" blindly apply Occam's Razor, this can lead to painful results. We emphasize that the sensitivity to prior probabilities and to the number of models compared can lead to "prior selection" rather than robust model selection. A concrete example demonstrates that Information Criteria can in fact misinform over a large region of parameter space.
Recommendations
- Statistical methods in cosmology
- scientific article; zbMATH DE number 1098875
- Which cosmological model-with dark energy or modified FRW dynamics?
- Model Selection when There is "Minimal" Prior Information
- Statistical Inference, Occam's Razor, and Statistical Mechanics on the Space of Probability Distributions
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