Can evolution paths be explained by chance alone?

DOI10.1016/J.JTBI.2019.02.004MaRDI QIDQ1730112zbMATH OpenOpenAlexWikidataFDO

Authors Rinaldo Schinazi

Publication date 11 March 2019

Published in Journal of Theoretical Biology (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1810.05705

zbMATH Keywords

adaptive walkevolutionprobability model

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Genetics and epigenetics (92D10) Problems related to evolution (92D15)

Abstract: We propose a purely probabilistic model to explain the evolution path of a population maximum fitness. We show that after $n$ births in the population there are about $lnn$ upwards jumps. This is true for any mutation probability and any fitness distribution and therefore suggests a general law for the number of upwards jumps. Simulations of our model show that a typical evolution path has first a steep rise followed by long plateaux. Moreover, independent runs show parallel paths. This is consistent with what was observed by Lenski and Travisano (1994) in their bacteria experiments.

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Cites work

• A minimum on the mean number of steps taken in adaptive walks
• A simple stochastic gene substitution model
• On the existence of accessible paths in various models of fitness landscapes
• Probability. Theory and examples.

Cited in

(5)

• Saltatory transitions are a naturally occurring property of evolving systems
• Emergence of random selections in evolution of biological populations
• On the existence of accessible paths in various models of fitness landscapes
• Historical contingency in controlled evolution
• The probability of improvement in Fisher's geometric model: a probabilistic approach

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