Conditional negative association for competing urns

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Abstract: Competing urns refers to the random experiment where m balls are dropped, randomly and independently, into urns 1,...,n. Formally, we have a random map sigma from {1,...,m} to {1,...,n} with the sigma(i)'s i.i.d. With xj the indicator of the event that at least tj balls land in urn j (for some threshold tj), we prove conditional negative association for the random variables x1,...,xn. We mostly deal with the more general situation in which the sigma(i)'s need not be identically distributed, proving results which imply conditional negative association in the i.i.d. case. Some of the results--particularly Lemma 8 on graph orientations--are thought to be of independent interest. We also give a counterexample to a negative correlation conjecture of D. Welsh, a strong version of a (still open) conjecture of G. Farr.











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