Conditional negative association for competing urns
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Abstract: Competing urns refers to the random experiment where m balls are dropped, randomly and independently, into urns 1,...,n. Formally, we have a random map from {1,...,m} to {1,...,n} with the 's i.i.d. With the indicator of the event that at least balls land in urn j (for some threshold ), we prove conditional negative association for the random variables . We mostly deal with the more general situation in which the 's need not be identically distributed, proving results which imply conditional negative association in the i.i.d. case. Some of the results--particularly Lemma 8 on graph orientations--are thought to be of independent interest. We also give a counterexample to a negative correlation conjecture of D. Welsh, a strong version of a (still open) conjecture of G. Farr.
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