Global maps of current (1979-2013) and future (2061-2080) habitat suitability probability for 1,485 European endemic plant species
DOI10.5281/ZENODO.4918250Zenodo4918250MaRDI QIDQ6673336FDOQ6673336
Dataset published at Zenodo repository.
Bernd Lenzner, Florian Jansen, Thomas Wohlgemuth, Franz Essl, Trevor Fristoe, Robin Pouteau, Carsten Hobohm, Qiang Yang, Caroline Brunel, Idoia Biurrun, Jens-Christian Svenning, Wilfried Thuiller, Petr Pyšek, Milan Chytrý, Mark van Kleunen, Holger Kreft, Jesper Erenskjold Moeslund, Wayne Dawson, Jan Pergl, Rense Haveman, Carsten Meyer, Jonathan Lenoir, Patrick Weigelt
Publication date: 9 June 2021
Aims: The rapid increase in the number of species that have naturalized beyond their native range is among the most apparent features of the Anthropocene. How alien species will respond to other processes of future global changes is an emerging concern and remains largely misunderstood. We therefore ask whether naturalized species will respond to climate and land-use change differently than those species not yet naturalized anywhere in the world. Location: Global Methods: We investigated future changes in the potential alien range of vascular plant species endemic to Europe that are either naturalized (n = 272) or not yet naturalized (1,213) outside of Europe. Potential ranges were estimated based on projections of species distribution models using 20 future climate-change scenarios. We mapped current and future global centres of naturalization risk. We also analyzed expected changes in latitudinal, elevational and areal extent of species' potential alien ranges. Results: We showed a large potential for more worldwide naturalizations of European plants currently and in the future. The centres of naturalization risk for naturalized and non-naturalized plants largely overlapped, and their location did not change much under projected future climates. Nevertheless, naturalized plants had their potential range shifting poleward over larger distances, whereas the non-naturalized ones had their potential elevational ranges shifting further upslope under the most severe climate change scenarios. As a result, climate and land-use changes are predicted to shrink the potential alien range of European plants, but less so for already naturalized than for non-naturalized species. Main conclusions: While currently non-naturalized plants originate frequently from mountain ranges or boreal and Mediterranean biomes in Europe, the naturalized ones usually occur at low elevations, close to human centres of activities. As the latter are expected to increase worldwide, this could explain why the potential alien range of already naturalized plants will shrink less.
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