Coronavirus prevalence in Brazilian Amazon and Sao Paulo city
DOI10.5281/zenodo.4311524Zenodo4311524MaRDI QIDQ6686758FDOQ6686758
Dataset published at Zenodo repository.
Christopher Dye, Maria Belotti, Lewis Buss, Pedro Takecian, Susie Gurzenda, Anna Nishiya, Maria Carvalho, Andreza Santos, Oliver Pybus, Rafael Henrique Moraes Pereira, Marcio Oikawa, Martirene Silva, Rafael França, Vanderson Rocha, Crispim Myuki, Nuno Faria, Brian Custer, Vitor Nascimento, Carlos A. Prete Jr., Claudia Abrahim, Nelson Fraiji, Tassila Salomon, Marcia Castro, Leonardo Kamaura, Nanci Salles, Charles Whittaker, Tassila Salomon, Suzete Ferreira, Allyson Costa, Cesar de Almeida-Neto, Manoel Barral-Netto, Alfredo Mendrone Junior, Michael Busch, Ester Cerdeira Sabino, Moritz U. G. Kraemer
Publication date: 8 December 2020
SARS-CoV-2 spread rapidly in the Brazilian Amazon. Mortality was elevated, despite the young population, with the health services and cemeteries overwhelmed. The attack rate in this region is an estimate of the final epidemic size in an unmitigated epidemic. Here we show that by June, one month after the epidemic peak in Manaus, capital of the Amazonas state, 44% of the population had detectable IgG antibodies. This equates to a cumulative incidence of 52% after correcting for the false-negative rate of the test. Further correcting for the effect of antibody waning we estimate that the final attack rate was 66%. This is higher than seen in other settings, but lower than the predicted final size for an unmitigated epidemic in a homogeneously mixed population. This discrepancy may be accounted for by population structure as well as some limited physical distancing and non-pharmaceutical measures adopted in the city.
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