Dynamic Integration of Time- and State-Domain Methods for Volatility Estimation

DOI10.1198/016214507000000176MaRDI QIDQ5307662zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Yingying Fan, Jiancheng Jiang, Jianqing Fan

Publication date 18 September 2007

Published in Journal of the American Statistical Association (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/math/0506029

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Nonparametric estimation (62G05) Asymptotic properties of nonparametric inference (62G20) Time series, auto-correlation, regression, etc. in statistics (GARCH) (62M10) Applications of statistics to actuarial sciences and financial mathematics (62P05)

Abstract: Time- and state-domain methods are two common approaches for nonparametric prediction. The former predominantly uses the data in the recent history while the latter mainly relies on historical information. The question of combining these two pieces of valuable information is an interesting challenge in statistics. We surmount this problem via dynamically integrating information from both the time and the state domains. The estimators from both domains are optimally combined based on a data driven weighting strategy, which provides a more efficient estimator of volatility. Asymptotic normality is seperately established for the time damain, the state domain, and the integrated estimators. By comparing the efficiency of the estimators, it is demonstrated that the proposed integrated estimator uniformly dominates the two other estimators. The proposed dynamic integration approach is also applicable to other estimation problems in time series. Extensive simulations are conducted to demonstrate that the newly proposed procedure outperforms some popular ones such as the RiskMetrics and the historical simulation approaches, among others. Empirical studies endorse convincingly our integration method.

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Cited in

(15)

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• Efficient estimation for the volatility of stochastic interest rate models
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• Extension of the random matrix theory to the L-moments for robust portfolio selection
• Nonparametric estimation of volatility function with variable bandwidth parameter
• The integration of dual-domain method for estimating the volatility of financial assets
• The econometrics of mean‐variance efficiency tests: a survey
• Double smoothed volatility estimation of potentially non-stationary jump-diffusion model of Shibor
• Convoluted smoothed kernel estimation for drift coefficients in jump-diffusion models
• Jump-robust volatility estimation using dynamic dual-domain integration method
• Variance reduction approach for the volatility over a finite-time horizon
• Uniform convergence rates of kernel-based nonparametric estimators for continuous time diffusion processes: a damping function approach
• Bias reduction estimation for drift coefficient in diffusion models with jumps

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