Estimating Probability Distributions by Observing Betting Practices

DOI10.1080/03610920701648698MaRDI QIDQ5450531zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Caroline Lynch, Daniel Barry

Publication date 12 March 2008

Published in Communications in Statistics: Theory and Methods (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://doi.org/10.1080/03610920701648698

zbMATH Keywords

bookmakerEM algorithmhorse raceMarkov decision process

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Continuous-time Markov processes on discrete state spaces (60J27) Search theory (90B40) Dynamic programming (90C39) Markov and semi-Markov decision processes (90C40)

Recommendations

• Estimation of possibility-probability distributions
• From gambling to random modelling
• Estimating risk preferences of bettors with different bet sizes
• Estimating tails of probability distributions
• Imprecise probabilities and unstable betting behaviour

Cites work

• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 3889341 (Why is no real title available?)
• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 3216771 (Why is no real title available?)
• On optimal policies and martingales in dynamic programming
• Optimization of stochastic systems. Topics in discrete-time systems
• The minimax bookie
• The stochastic processes of Borel gambling and dynamic programming

Cited in

(2)

• The minimax bookie: the two-horse case
• Horse racing odds: can you beat the track by hedging your bets?

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