exmort
An interactive 'shiny' application that estimates all-cause mortality and excess mortality from country-level weekly or monthly death counts. Users supply observed deaths and an event calendar (for example COVID-19 waves or typhoons); the app fits one or more statistical baseline models (historical average, negative binomial regression, quasi-Poisson regression, zero-inflated Poisson regression, ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) and SARIMA (seasonal ARIMA) models, GAM (generalized additive model) splines, and the model of Karlinsky and Kobak (2021) <doi:10.7554/eLife.69336>) using periods outside the supplied events, estimates expected deaths across the observed series, and reports excess deaths, P-scores (excess deaths as a percentage of expected deaths) and confidence limits with tables, plots and downloadable reports. Launch the application with run_app().
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