Extremal dichotomy for uniformly hyperbolic systems

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Abstract: We consider the extreme value theory of a hyperbolic toral automorphism T:mathbbT2omathbbT2 showing that if a H"older observation phi which is a function of a Euclidean-type distance to a non-periodic point zeta is strictly maximized at zeta then the corresponding time series phicircTi exhibits extreme value statistics corresponding to an iid sequence of random variables with the same distribution function as phi and with extremal index one. If however phi is strictly maximized at a periodic point q then the corresponding time-series exhibits extreme value statistics corresponding to an iid sequence of random variables with the same distribution function as phi but with extremal index not equal to one. We give a formula for the extremal index (which depends upon the metric used and the period of q). These results imply that return times are Poisson to small balls centered at non-periodic points and compound Poisson for small balls centered at periodic points.




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