The distribution of knots in the Petaluma model (Q1631708)

The authors investigate the Petaluma model, based on petal diagrams. This model has the advantage of being based on one random permutation. In previous work, [Discrete Comput. Geom. 56, No. 2, 274--314 (2016; Zbl 1354.57012)], the authors studied the distribution of finite-type invariants in the Petaluma model. Consider a petal diagram with an odd number $2n+1$ of petals. The random variable $K_{2n+1}$ is the knot type obtained from a uniformly random sequence of heights. The Casson invariant $c_2(K)$ is the coefficient of $x^2$ in the Alexander-Conway polynomial $C_K(x)$. In the Petaluma model the authors showed $E\left[c_2(K_{2n+1})^2\right] = \mu_k n^{2k} +O(n^{2k-1})$ and obtained formulas for the normalized limiting moments $\mu_k$ (see [loc. cit.]). However, it is impossible to conclude that with high probability $c_2$ does not vanish based solely on finitely many limiting moments. In the present paper the authors overcome this difficulty.