Bayesian Model Checking by Betting: A Game-Theoretic Alternative to Bayesian <i>p</i> -values and Classical Bayes Factors (Q7250010)

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Bayesian Model Checking by Betting: A Game-Theoretic Alternative to Bayesian p -values and Classical Bayes Factors

scientific article; zbMATH DE number 8201657

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English	Bayesian Model Checking by Betting: A Game-Theoretic Alternative to Bayesian <i>p</i> -values and Classical Bayes Factors	scientific article; zbMATH DE number 8201657

Statements

scholarly article

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Bayesian Model Checking by Betting: A Game-Theoretic Alternative to Bayesian <i>p</i> -values and Classical Bayes Factors (English)

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David R. Bickel

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The American Statistician

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publication date

19 May 2026

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MaRDI profile type

MaRDI publication profile

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Prior-based model checking

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Bayesian model selection and statistical modeling.

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Empty confidence sets for epidemics, branching processes and Brownian motion

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A Bayesian goodness-of-fit test for regression

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P Values for Composite Null Models

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Testing a Point Null Hypothesis: The Irreconcilability of P Values and Evidence

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P Values Maximized Over a Confidence Set for the Nuisance Parameter

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The strength of statistical evidence for composite hypotheses: inference to the best explanation

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Pseudo-likelihood, explanatory power, and Bayes's theorem [Comment on: ``A likelihood paradigm for clinical trials'']

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Inference after checking multiple Bayesian models for data conflict and applications to mitigating the influence of rejected priors

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A note on fiducial model averaging as an alternative to checking Bayesian and frequentist models

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Testing prediction algorithms as null hypotheses: application to assessing the performance of deep neural networks

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Null Hypothesis Significance Testing Defended and Calibrated by Bayesian Model Checking

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The sufficiency of the evidence, the relevancy of the evidence, and quantifying both with a single number

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Coherent checking and updating of Bayesian models without specifying the model space: a decision-theoretic semantics for possibility theory

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Fisher's disjunction as the principle vindicating \(p\)-values, confidence intervals, and their generalizations: a frequentist semantics for possibility theory

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Maximum entropy derived and generalized under idempotent probability to address Bayes-frequentist uncertainty and model revision uncertainty: an information-theoretic semantics for possibility theory

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Statistical evidence and surprise unified under possibility theory

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David R. Bickel's contribution to the discussion of `safe testing' by Grünwald, de Heide, and Koolen

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A small-sample Bayesian information criterion that does not overstate the evidence, with an application to calibrating \(p\)-values from likelihood-ratio tests

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Self-consistent confidence sets and tests of composite hypotheses applicable to restricted parameters

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Model fusion and multiple testing in the likelihood paradigm: shrinkage and evidence supporting a point null hypothesis

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Sampling and Bayes' Inference in Scientific Modelling and Robustness

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Possibility-theoretic statistical inference offers performance and probativeness assurances

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Model Selection and Model Averaging

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Error and inference. Recent exchanges on experimental reasoning, reliability, and the objectivity and rationality of science

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Bayesian model selection based on proper scoring rules

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Forecast Combination and Model Averaging Using Predictive Measures

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Coherent Hypothesis Testing

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The development of Bayesian statistics

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Divergence versus decision<i>P</i>‐values: A distinction worth making in theory and keeping in practice: Or, how divergence<i>P</i>‐values measure evidence even when decision<i>P</i>‐values do not

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Sander Greenland's contribution to the discussion of `safe testing' by Grünwald, de Heide, and Koolen

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Beyond Neyman-Pearson: e-values enable hypothesis testing with a data-driven alpha

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Coherent Tests for Interval Null Hypotheses

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Approximate Bayesian model selection with the deviance statistic

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A general framework for model-based statistics

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Post-Processing Posterior Predictive<i>p</i>Values

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A nonparametric assessment of model adequacy based on Kullback-Leibler divergence

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Bayesian and robust Bayesian analysis under a general class of balanced loss functions

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Portfolio theory and arbitrage. A course in mathematical finance

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A Bayes interpretation of stacking for \(\mathcal{M}\)-complete and \(\mathcal{M}\)-open settings

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Understanding uncertainty

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The error‐statistical philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics: Comments on Gelman and Shalizi: ‘Philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics’

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Statistical Inference as Severe Testing

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Frequentist statistics as a theory of inductive inference

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Severe Testing as a Basic Concept in a Neyman–Pearson Philosophy of Induction

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A small-sample correction for the Schwarz SIC model selection criterion.

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Bayesian goodness of fit testing with mixtures of triangular distributions

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Posterior predictive \(p\)-values

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The humble Bayesian: model checking from a fully Bayesian perspective

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Checking for prior-data conflict using prior-to-posterior divergences

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Large deviations and idempotent probability

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Game-theoretic statistics and safe anytime-valid inference

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Statistical Evidence

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Author's reply to the discussion of `Testing by betting: a strategy for statistical and scientific communication' by Glenn Shafer

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Testing by betting: a strategy for statistical and scientific communication

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Test martingales, Bayes factors and \(p\)-values

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Game-theoretic foundations for probability and finance

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Bayesian test of normality versus a Dirichlet process mixture alternative

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Lower Previsions

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E-values: calibration, combination and applications

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Confidence and discoveries with \(e\)-values

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Bayesian nonparametric system reliability using sets of priors

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Testing with \(\mathrm{p}^*\)-values: between p-values, mid p-values, and e-values

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False discovery rate control with e-values

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Bayesian model selection and model averaging

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Using stacking to average Bayesian predictive distributions (with discussion)

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Identifiers

10.1080/00031305.2025.2507764

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Mathematics Subject Classification ID

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zbMATH DE Number

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Sitelinks

Mathematics(1 entry)

mardi Publication:7250010

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