Large deviations for triangles in scale-free random graphs

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Abstract: We provide large deviations estimates for the upper tail of the number of triangles in scale-free inhomogeneous random graphs where the degrees have power law tails with index alpha,alphain(1,2). We show that upper tail probabilities for triangles undergo a phase transition. For alpha<4/3, the upper tail is caused by many vertices of degree of order n, and this probability is semi-exponential. In this regime, additional triangles consist of two hubs. For alpha>4/3 on the other hand, the upper tail is caused by one hub of a specific degree, and this probability decays polynomially in n, leading to additional triangles with one hub. In the intermediate case alpha=4/3, we show polynomial decay of the tail probability caused by multiple but finitely many hubs. In this case, the additional triangles contain either a single hub or two hubs. Our proofs are partly based on various concentration inequalities. In particular, we tailor concentration bounds for empirical processes to make them well-suited for analyzing heavy-tailed phenomena in nonlinear settings.












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