Model imperfection and predicting predictability

DOI10.1142/S0218127413300279MaRDI QIDQ2864959zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors R. L. Machete

Publication date 27 November 2013

Published in International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos in Applied Sciences and Engineering (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://doi.org/10.1142/s0218127413300279

zbMATH Keywords

bifurcationchaotic circuitsforecastingradial basis functionsuncertainty

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Dynamical systems in other branches of physics (quantum mechanics, general relativity, laser physics) (37N20) Analytic circuit theory (94C05)

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Cites work

• Chaos and weather forecasting: the role of the unstable subspace in predictability and state estimation problems
• Combining inflation density forecasts
• Consistent nonlinear dynamics: identifying model inadequacy
• Convergence properties of radial basis functions
• Ensemble forecasting
• Ergodic theory of chaos and strange attractors
• ESTIMATING ERROR GROWTH AND SHADOW BEHAVIOR IN NONLINEAR DYNAMICAL SYSTEMS
• EXPERIMENTAL CHAOS SYNCHRONIZATION IN CHUA'S CIRCUIT
• Independent coordinates for strange attractors from mutual information.
• Localized Lyapunov exponents and the prediction of predictability
• On selecting models for nonlinear time series
• Optimal embedding parameters: a modelling paradigm

Cited in

(15)

• Predictability of extreme waves in the Lorenz-96 model near intermittency and quasi-periodicity
• Prediction error after model search
• Can the wrong horse win: the ability of race models to predict fast or slow errors
• Non-uniform decay of predictability and return of skill in stochastic oscillatory models
• When good theories make bad predictions
• Robustness, fidelity and prediction-looseness of models
• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 3871152 (Why is no real title available?)
• Predicting future responses based on possibly mis-specified working models
• Study on the regularity of predictability limit of chaotic systems with different initial errors
• Improved modeling by coupling imperfect models
• The predictability problem in systems with an uncertainty in the evolution law
• QUANTIFYING PREDICTABILITY IN A SIMPLE MODEL WITH COMPLEX FEATURES
• Universal upper estimate for prediction errors under moderate model uncertainty
• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 5587350 (Why is no real title available?)
• Chaotic dynamics reconstruction from noisy data: phenomenon of predictability worsening for incomplete set of observables

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