Modeling social media contagion using Hawkes processes

DOI10.14708/MA.V49I1.7102MaRDI QIDQ6352397arXivFDO

Authors Zbigniew Palmowski, Daria Puchalska

Publication date 24 October 2020

Published in arXiv

Full work available at URL https://doi.org/10.14708/MA.V49I1.7102

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Point processes (e.g., Poisson, Cox, Hawkes processes) (60G55) Social networks; opinion dynamics (91D30)

arXiv classification

cs.SI math.PR

Abstract: The contagion dynamics can emerge in social networks when repeated activation is allowed. An interesting example of this phenomenon is retweet cascades where users allow to re-share content posted by other people with public accounts. To model this type of behaviour we use a Hawkes self-exciting process. To do it properly though one needs to calibrate model under consideration. The main goal of this paper is to construct moments method of estimation of this model. The key step is based on identifying of a generator of a Hawkes process. We perform numerical analysis on real data as well.

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