Moderate deviations in cycle count

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Abstract: We prove moderate deviations bounds for the lower tail of the number of odd cycles in a calG(n,m) random graph. We show that the probability of decreasing triangle density by t3, is exp(−Theta(n2t2)) whenever n−3/4llt3ll1, while for kge5 we give the same estimate for the probability of decreasing the k-cycle density by tk, but for the larger range n−1lltkll1. When , we also find the leading coefficient in the exponent. This complements results of Goldschmidt et al., who showed that for n−3/2lltklln−1, the probability is exp(−Theta(n3t2k)). That is, deviations of order smaller than n−1 behave like small deviations, and deviations of order larger than n−3/4 (for triangles) or n−1 (for k-cycles with kge5) behave like large deviations. For triangles, we conjecture that a sharp change between the two regimes occurs for deviations of size n−3/4, which we associate with a single large negative eigenvalue of the adjacency matrix becoming responsible for almost all of the cycle deficit. Our results can be interpreted as finite size effects in phase transitions in constrained random graphs.



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