On Watts' cascade model with random link weights

DOI10.1093/COMNET/CNT003MaRDI QIDQ4689337zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors T. R. Hurd, James P. Gleeson

Publication date 16 October 2018

Published in Journal of Complex Networks (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1211.5708

zbMATH Keywords

banking networkbond percolationcascade conditioncontagioninformation cascaderandom graphstochastic networksystemic risk

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Random graphs (graph-theoretic aspects) (05C80) Small world graphs, complex networks (graph-theoretic aspects) (05C82) Stochastic network models in operations research (90B15) Social networks; opinion dynamics (91D30)

Abstract: We study an extension of Duncan Watts' 2002 model of information cascades in social networks where edge weights are taken to be random, an innovation motivated by recent applications of cascade analysis to systemic risk in financial networks. The main result is a probabilistic analysis that characterizes the cascade in an infinite network as the fixed point of a vector-valued mapping, explicit in terms of convolution integrals that can be efficiently evaluated numerically using the fast Fourier transform algorithm. A second result gives an approximate probabilistic analysis of cascades on "real world networks", finite networks based on a fixed deterministic graph. Extensive cross testing with Monte Carlo estimates shows that this approximate analysis performs surprisingly well, and provides a flexible microscope that can be used to investigate properties of information cascades in real world networks over a wide range of model parameters.

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(11)

• Autoregressive cascades on random networks
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• Systemic risk in multiplex networks with asymmetric coupling and threshold feedback
• Systemic cascades on inhomogeneous random financial networks
• Double cascade model of financial crises
• Branching process descriptions of information cascades on Twitter
• Modeling event cascades using networks of additive count sequences
• Contagion in social networks: on contagion thresholds
• Influence of initiators on the tipping point in the extended Watts model
• Brief synopsis of the scientific career of T. R. Hurd
• Probability-graphons: limits of large dense weighted graphs

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