On a Phase Transition in General Order Spline Regression

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Abstract: In the Gaussian sequence model Y=heta0+varepsilon in mathbbRn, we study the fundamental limit of approximating the signal heta0 by a class Theta(d,d0,k) of (generalized) splines with free knots. Here d is the degree of the spline, d0 is the order of differentiability at each inner knot, and k is the maximal number of pieces. We show that, given any integer dgeq0 and d0in−1,0,ldots,d−1, the minimax rate of estimation over Theta(d,d0,k) exhibits the following phase transition: �egin{equation*} �egin{aligned} inf_{widetilde{ heta}}sup_{ hetainTheta(d,d_0, k)}mathbb{E}_ heta|widetilde{ heta} - heta|^2 asymp_d �egin{cases} kloglog(16n/k), & 2leq kleq k_0,\ klog(en/k), & k geq k_0+1. end{cases} end{aligned} end{equation*} The transition boundary k0, which takes the form lfloor(d+1)/(d−d0)floor+1, demonstrates the critical role of the regularity parameter d0 in the separation between a faster loglog(16n) and a slower log(en) rate. We further show that, once encouraging an additional 'd-monotonicity' shape constraint (including monotonicity for d=0 and convexity for d=1), the above phase transition is eliminated and the faster kloglog(16n/k) rate can be achieved for all k. These results provide theoretical support for developing ell0-penalized (shape-constrained) spline regression procedures as useful alternatives to ell1- and ell2-penalized ones.












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