On approximation of Markov binomial distributions

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Abstract: For a Markov chain mathbfX=Xi,i=1,2,...,n with the state space 0,1, the random variable S:=sumi=1nXi is said to follow a Markov binomial distribution. The exact distribution of S, denoted mathcalLS, is very computationally intensive for large n (see Gabriel [Biometrika 46 (1959) 454--460] and Bhat and Lal [Adv. in Appl. Probab. 20 (1988) 677--680]) and this paper concerns suitable approximate distributions for mathcalLS when mathbfX is stationary. We conclude that the negative binomial and binomial distributions are appropriate approximations for mathcalLS when operatornameVarS is greater than and less than mathbbES, respectively. Also, due to the unique structure of the distribution, we are able to derive explicit error estimates for these approximations.









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