On universal estimates for binary renewal processes
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Markov processes: estimation; hidden Markov models (62M05) Inference from stochastic processes and prediction (62M20) Prediction theory (aspects of stochastic processes) (60G25) Order statistics; empirical distribution functions (62G30) Queueing theory (aspects of probability theory) (60K25) Optimal stopping in statistics (62L15) Renewal theory (60K05)
Abstract: A binary renewal process is a stochastic process taking values in where the lengths of the runs of 1's between successive zeros are independent. After observing one would like to predict the future behavior, and the problem of universal estimators is to do so without any prior knowledge of the distribution. We prove a variety of results of this type, including universal estimates for the expected time to renewal as well as estimates for the conditional distribution of the time to renewal. Some of our results require a moment condition on the time to renewal and we show by an explicit construction how some moment condition is necessary.
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