Proper local scoring rules

DOI10.1214/12-AOS971MaRDI QIDQ450049zbMATH OpenWikidataFDO

Authors Matthew Parry, A. Philip Dawid, Steffen Lauritzen

Publication date 3 September 2012

Published in The Annals of Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1101.5011, https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.aos/1336396183

zbMATH Keywords

entropyscore matchingconcavitydivergenceEuler-Lagrange equationhomogeneityvariational methodsintegration by partsBregman scorelocal function

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Foundational topics in statistics (62A99) Statistical decision theory (62C99)

Abstract: We investigate proper scoring rules for continuous distributions on the real line. It is known that the log score is the only such rule that depends on the quoted density only through its value at the outcome that materializes. Here we allow further dependence on a finite number $m$ of derivatives of the density at the outcome, and describe a large class of such $m$-local proper scoring rules: these exist for all even $m$ but no odd $m$. We further show that for $mgeq2$ all such $m$-local rules can be computed without knowledge of the normalizing constant of the distribution.

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