Public opinion by a poll process: model study and Bayesian view

DOI10.1088/1742-5468/AABBC5MaRDI QIDQ4964600zbMATH OpenOpenAlexWikidataFDO

Authors Hyun Keun Lee, Yong-Woon Kim

Publication date 2 March 2021

Published in Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1804.08433

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Voting theory (91B12) Models of societies, social and urban evolution (91D10)

Abstract: We study the formation of public opinion in a poll process where the current score is open to public. The voters are assumed to vote probabilistically for or against their own preference considering the group opinion collected up to then in the score. The poll-score probability is found to follow the beta distribution in the large polls limit. We demonstrate that various poll results even contradictory to the population preference are possible with non-zero probability density and that such deviations are readily triggered by initial bias. It is mentioned that our poll model can be understood in the Bayesian viewpoint.

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(9)

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• Public opinion as nowcast: consistency and the role of news uncertainty
• Rationalizing systematic discrepancies between election outcomes and opinion polls
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