A study of the impact of environmental stochasticity on extinction probabilities by Monte Carlo integration
An environmental process was characterized by a stationary second order autogressive process with Gaussian noise. This process was then linked to survivorship and reproductive success by logistic transformations. The sensitivity of extinction probabilities to variations in the parameters of the environmental process was studied by computer experiments in Monte Carlo integration. Against the background of the rather limited number of fertility and mortality levels studied in these experiments, the extinction probabilities were demonstrated to be quite sensitive to variations in the parameters of the environmental process. Although more extensive experiments will need to be carried out, those conducted so far suggest that concerted efforts should be made to model those environmental factors that are critical to the survivability of an endangered species in assessing its chances for continued existence.
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