Human life is unlimited -- but short

DOI10.1007/S10687-017-0305-5zbMATH Open1387.62120arXiv1708.02184OpenAlexW2745042689WikidataQ59611522 ScholiaQ59611522MaRDI QIDQ1693604FDOQ1693604

Authors: Holger Rootzén, Dmitrii Zholud 

Publication date: 31 January 2018

Published in: Extremes (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: Does the human lifespan have an impenetrable biological upper limit which ultimately will stop further increase in life lengths? This question is important for understanding aging, and for society, and has led to intense controversies. Demographic data for humans has been interpreted as showing existence of a limit, or even as an indication of a decreasing limit, but also as evidence that a limit does not exist. This paper studies what can be inferred from data about human mortality at extreme age. We show that in western countries and Japan and after age 110 the probability of dying is about 47% per year. Hence there is no finite upper limit to the human lifespan. Still, given the present stage of biotechnology, it is unlikely that during the next 25 years anyone will live longer than 128 years in these countries. Data, remarkably, shows no difference in mortality after age 110 between sexes, between ages, or between different lifestyles or genetic backgrounds. These results, and the analysis methods developed in this paper, can help testing biological theories of ageing and aid confirmation of success of efforts to find a cure for ageing.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1708.02184

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zbMATH Keywords

generalized Pareto distributionsize-biased samplingforce of mortalityextreme human life lengthsfuture record agesIDLJeanne Calmentlimit for human life spanno influence of genetic background on survival at extreme ageno influence of lifestyle on survival at extreme agesupercentenarians

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Censored data models (62N01) Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis (62P10) Extreme value theory; extremal stochastic processes (60G70) Statistics of extreme values; tail inference (62G32)

Cites Work

• An introduction to statistical modeling of extreme values
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• On the maximal life span of humans

Cited In (20)

• longevity
• Improved inference on risk measures for univariate extremes
• A modeler's guide to extreme value software
• Human Mortality at Extreme Ages: Data from the NLTCS and Linked Medicare Records
• Modelling life tables with advanced ages: an extreme value theory approach
• Predictive implications of Gompertz's law
• Title not available (Why is that?)
• On invariant property in population statistics
• ``The life of man, solitary, poore, nasty, brutish, and short: discussion of the paper by Rootzén and Zholud
• Comments to Rootzén \& Zholud: Human life is unlimited -- but short
• Comments on ``Human life is unlimited -- but short by H. Rootzén and D. Zholud
• Discussion on ``Human life is unlimited but short by Holger Rootzén and Dmitrii Zholud
• Inference on the endpoint of human lifespan and its inherent statistical difficulty, Discussion on the paper by Holger Rootzén and Dmitrii Zholud
• Discussion of ``Human life is unlimited -- but short by H. Rootzén and D. Zholud
• Rejoinder to discussion of the paper ``Human life is unlimited -- but short
• The curse of the plateau. Measuring confidence in human mortality estimates at extreme ages
• Fractional inhomogeneous multi-state models in life insurance
• Is human life limited or unlimited? (A discussion of the paper by Holger Rootzén and Dmitrii Zholud)
• The plateau of human mortality: demography of longevity pioneers
• Limits to human life span through extreme value theory

Uses Software

• ismev

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