Assessing the impacts of time-to-detection distribution assumptions on detection probability estimation
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Publication:1695258
Abstract: Abundance estimates from animal point-count surveys require accurate estimates of detection probabilities. The standard model for estimating detection from removal-sampled point-count surveys assumes that organisms at a survey site are detected at a constant rate; however, this assumption is often not justified. We consider a class of N-mixture models that allows for detection heterogeneity over time through a flexibly defined time-to-detection distribution (TTDD) and allows for fixed and random effects for both abundance and detection. Our model is thus a combination of survival time-to-event analysis with unknown-N, unknown-p abundance estimation. We specifically explore two-parameter families of TTDDs, e.g. gamma, that can additionally include a mixture component to model increased probability of detection in the initial observation period. We find that modeling a TTDD by using a two-parameter family is necessary when data have a chance of arising from a distribution of this nature. In addition, models with a mixture component can outperform non-mixture models even when the truth is non-mixture. Finally, we analyze an Overbird data set from the Chippewa National Forest using mixed effect models for both abundance and detection. We demonstrate that the effects of explanatory variables on abundance and detection are consistent across mixture TTDDs but that flexible TTDDs result in lower estimated probabilities of detection and therefore higher estimates of abundance.
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Cited in
(7)- Models for jointly estimating abundances of two unmarked site-associated species subject to imperfect detection
- Fitting statistical distributions to sea duck count data: implications for survey design and abundance estimation
- Joint modeling of distances and times in point-count surveys
- A comparison of models using removal effort to estimate animal abundance
- Exact likelihoods for N-mixture models with time-to-detection data
- Tailoring point counts for inference about avian density: dealing with nondetection and availability
- Deep neural network identification of \textit{Limnonectes} species and new class detection using image data
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