Invasion probabilities, hitting times, and some fluctuation theory for the stochastic logistic process

DOI10.1007/S00285-018-1250-XMaRDI QIDQ1784429zbMATH OpenOpenAlexWikidataFDO

Authors Todd L. Parsons

Publication date 26 September 2018

Published in Journal of Mathematical Biology (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1704.02168

zbMATH Keywords

stochastic processeslarge deviationsextinctionlogistic equationinvasion probabilities

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Applications of continuous-time Markov processes on discrete state spaces (60J28) Large deviations (60F10) Applications of branching processes (60J85) Population dynamics (general) (92D25)

Abstract: We consider excursions for a class of stochastic processes describing a population of discrete individuals experiencing density-limited growth, such that the population has a finite carrying capacity and behaves qualitatively like the classical logistic model when the carrying capacity is large. Being discrete and stochastic, however, our population nonetheless goes extinct in finite time. We present results concerning the maximum of the population prior to extinction in the large population limit, from which we obtain establishment probabilities and upper bounds for the process, as well as estimates for the waiting time to establishment and extinction. As a consequence, we show that conditional upon establishment, the stochastic logistic process will with high probability greatly exceed carrying capacity an arbitrary number of times prior to extinction.

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Cited in

(4)

• Extinction time of the logistic process
• Controlling biological invasions: a stochastic host-generalist parasitoid model
• Sharp approximation and hitting times for stochastic invasion processes
• A branching process with coalescence to model random phylogenetic networks

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