Invasion probabilities, hitting times, and some fluctuation theory for the stochastic logistic process

DOI10.1007/S00285-018-1250-XzbMATH Open1398.92216arXiv1704.02168OpenAlexW2963581018WikidataQ89281952 ScholiaQ89281952MaRDI QIDQ1784429FDOQ1784429

Authors: Todd L. Parsons 

Publication date: 26 September 2018

Published in: Journal of Mathematical Biology (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: We consider excursions for a class of stochastic processes describing a population of discrete individuals experiencing density-limited growth, such that the population has a finite carrying capacity and behaves qualitatively like the classical logistic model when the carrying capacity is large. Being discrete and stochastic, however, our population nonetheless goes extinct in finite time. We present results concerning the maximum of the population prior to extinction in the large population limit, from which we obtain establishment probabilities and upper bounds for the process, as well as estimates for the waiting time to establishment and extinction. As a consequence, we show that conditional upon establishment, the stochastic logistic process will with high probability greatly exceed carrying capacity an arbitrary number of times prior to extinction.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1704.02168

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zbMATH Keywords

stochastic processeslarge deviationsextinctionlogistic equationinvasion probabilities

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Applications of continuous-time Markov processes on discrete state spaces (60J28) Large deviations (60F10) Applications of branching processes (60J85) Population dynamics (general) (92D25)

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Cited In (4)

• Controlling biological invasions: a stochastic host-generalist parasitoid model
• Extinction time of the logistic process
• Sharp approximation and hitting times for stochastic invasion processes
• A branching process with coalescence to model random phylogenetic networks

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