A Bayesian nonparametric approach to modeling market share dynamics

DOI10.3150/11-BEJ392zbMATH Open1288.62042arXiv1302.0115MaRDI QIDQ1940749FDOQ1940749

I. Prünster, Matteo Ruggiero

Publication date: 7 March 2013

Published in: Bernoulli (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: We propose a flexible stochastic framework for modeling the market share dynamics over time in a multiple markets setting, where firms interact within and between markets. Firms undergo stochastic idiosyncratic shocks, which contract their shares, and compete to consolidate their position by acquiring new ones in both the market where they operate and in new markets. The model parameters can meaningfully account for phenomena such as barriers to entry and exit, fixed and sunk costs, costs of expanding to new sectors with different technologies and competitive advantage among firms. The construction is obtained in a Bayesian framework by means of a collection of nonparametric hierarchical mixtures, which induce the dependence between markets and provide a generalization of the Blackwell-MacQueen P'{o}lya urn scheme, which in turn is used to generate a partially exchangeable dynamical particle system. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm is provided for simulating trajectories of the system, by means of which we perform a simulation study for transitions to different economic regimes. Moreover, it is shown that the infinite-dimensional properties of the system, when appropriately transformed and rescaled, are those of a collection of interacting Fleming-Viot diffusions.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1302.0115

zbMATH Keywords

Bayesian nonparametricsGibbs samplerparticle systemmarket dynamicsspecies sampling modelsinteracting Fleming-Viot processes[https://portal.mardi4nfdi.de/w/index.php?title=+Special%3ASearch&search=interacting+P%EF%BF%BD%EF%BF%BDlya+urns&go=Go interacting P��lya urns]

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Bayesian inference (62F15) Nonparametric estimation (62G05) Applications of statistics to economics (62P20) Statistical methods; risk measures (91G70) Interacting random processes; statistical mechanics type models; percolation theory (60K35) Random measures (60G57)

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Cited In (6)

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